Anchor

The dealer book is the senior read and it reads range-bound: work both edges, no lean, reduced conviction. Monday was a half session — cash shut for Labor Day, ES ran 7,728 down to 7,703 and stopped at 1:00 PM ET.

Two prices, one anchor. Every level here is struck against Friday’s cash close, SPX 7,712 / ES 7,717 — that is what the header quotes and what the board was measured at. ES has since traded to 7,707, about 11 points below; no level moves, and Setup D is the only one written off the live futures clock.

The read:

• Vanna is the load-bearing force, and it is a pull rather than a barrier. Dealers hold roughly $1.10B of long vanna across the chain, with the heaviest node at SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 (+$605.1M) — as volatility comes out, that level draws price toward it.

• Gamma splits by horizon, and the front of the book is the jumpy half. About +$143M of long gamma across all expirations dampens the week, but this week’s expirations print negative gamma — Tuesday’s alone near -$37M — and the negative stretch runs from SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 down to SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605. Inside that stretch a move gets to run before the longer-dated book leans against it.

Trade it at the edges:

• Buy zone — SPX 7,605-7,618 / ES 7,610-7,623. This is where gamma turns positive again over the largest block of dealer inventory on the board, with the prior-week low and the value-area low stacked on it. It is earned by a flush that reaches the zone and then reclaims, not by the shallow bounce on the way down.

• Backup buy — SPX 7,630 / ES 7,635. If the flush stalls before the buy zone, this is the level to work instead: the last structure above the floor zone, carried by the monthly and all-expiration books so it survives Friday’s expiration, with $373.2M of net-long dealer inventory behind it. Shallower and less well-funded than 7,605-7,618, so it is the lesser of the two — take it on the same reclaim evidence, not on first touch.

• Fade zone — SPX 7,778-7,795 / ES 7,783-7,800. Only after price pushes above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 and fails back under it. Never a blind short into the heaviest node on the board.

• In between — wait, don’t chase. Price is already inside the dense band from SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 up through SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730, and the 0DTE close magnet for Tuesday sits in that same band. The levels that matter this week are the ones price is touching, so let it come to a named one rather than paying up between them.

What changes the frame:

• Break up: a daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ends the range read and opens SPX 7,850 / ES 7,855, then SPX 7,900 / ES 7,905.

• Break down: losing SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 puts price inside the permissive stretch that runs to SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 — which is where the buy zone lives. A daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 ends the range read on that side.

• Catalysts: PPI Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, Oracle and Adobe both after Thursday’s close, CPI Friday at 8:30 AM ET — into a September 16 Fed meeting that futures price at roughly a 56-63% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Volatility is compressed at spot VIX 14.25, which is what makes a range read credible and is also the fastest thing here to change.

How to read the Greeks in this plan (one-time key — skip it once it’s familiar):

• Gamma is structure, and which side of spot it sits on sets its meaning. Positive gamma above spot acts as resistance, positive gamma below spot acts as support, and negative gamma is permissive on both sides — it lets price accelerate through a level rather than absorbing the move.

• Vanna is a volatility-driven magnet, and it is sign-only — no side flip. Positive vanna pulls price toward the level and negative vanna pushes price away wherever the level sits; both readings assume implied volatility is moving, so with vol flat there is no vanna pull to trade.

Regime Read

Regime: range-bound — fade both extremes, no lean.

Why: Dealer gamma is net-long — it pins price and contains moves, structured inside a defined band; the higher-timeframe trend is up (the daily, weekly and monthly point the same way). Net: fade the edges, don’t chase the middle.

Leg — the buy zone, SPX 7,605-7,618 / ES 7,610-7,623. That zone is the leg because it is where gamma flips from negative to positive over the board’s largest net-long dealer block, with the prior-week low and the value-area low stacked on the same prints. It is the one place below price where the book stops being permissive and starts absorbing, which is why the week is worked from there rather than from the band edge.

The band: SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655 to SPX 7,790 / ES 7,795 — held by the 1-week and 2-week floor at SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655 and the 2-week pivot at SPX 7,790 / ES 7,795.

How the levels below price stack. Four different things sit under spot and it is easy to read them as one — they are not:

The band floor and the floor zone are different levels doing different jobs: 7,650 is where containment is measured, 7,600-7,630 is where the book actually turns. A flush through 7,650 is not a break — it is the move toward the zone that pays.

Triggers: these two edges are the containment boundary. A confirmed break above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 is the breakout — the next leg up; a confirmed break below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 is the breakdown — the next leg down.

The better-funded edge is beneath price, so the trade worth waiting for is a flush into the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 gamma flip and the reclaim off it — and nothing on the short side is worth taking until a poke above the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 wall has actually failed back under it.

Dealer Positioning

One-line read: dealers dampen from the monthly expiration outward and amplify inside this week, so the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ceiling and the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor are real walls while the stretch between SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 and the floor travels faster than the distance suggests.

(1) Gamma — the structure force, the wall dealers defend, so pushes into it tend to stall.

• Across every expiration dealers are net long gamma at +$142.8M, and more than half of that sits in one place: the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ceiling carries +$84.4M, the largest single wall on the board. Rallies into it decelerate rather than accelerate.

• In this week’s and next week’s books the same dealers are net short gamma (-$44.7M and -$45.6M), and there is no defended wall between the SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 shelf and the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor. Short gamma there means hedging goes with the move, so that stretch behaves like stairs rather than a cushion.

• The asymmetry: the heavier structure is a single overhead wall built out of expirations that survive Friday, while the support beneath price is spread thin across near-dated shelves. One hard ceiling, one hard floor, and a soft pocket in between.

(2) Vanna — the volatility force, a vol-driven magnet: falling volatility pulls price toward it.

• Dealers are net long vanna in every window (+$1.05B in the one-week book, +$908M monthly, +$1.10B across all expirations), and the largest node sits at the same SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ceiling (+$605.1M). With implied volatility at the low end of its one-year range, a long-vanna book quietly buys as volatility bleeds — a slow pull up toward that ceiling, not a trigger.

• The catch is the sign below spot: vanna at the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor is negative (-$339.3M), as it is at SPX 7,500 / ES 7,505 (-$351.7M). A flush that arrives with volatility rising gets pushed away from those floors instead of drawn into them, so a quiet drift down into the floor is worth more than a panic into it.

(3) Delta — dealer inventory: what is parked at a level and which way it leans.

• This is positioning dealers already hold and have already hedged, never pending buying or selling. Far more of it is parked below spot than above, and the two deepest shelves are the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor ($20.6B net long) and SPX 7,500 / ES 7,505 ($18.1B).

• That is why those two strikes act as the base of the range while the shelves between them behave like steps. Charm — time-decay drift that firms up as expiration nears — is small and negative, and only matters into Tuesday’s close, where it firms the SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730 pin band.

What that means by zone:

• SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730 — Tuesday’s pin band. Two-sided chop while the 0DTE expiration is alive; it does not exist on Wednesday.

• SPX 7,610-7,700 / ES 7,615-7,705 — the short-gamma pocket. Stair-step slides that run further and faster than the level spacing implies; levels here slow price, they do not stop it.

• SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 — where gamma flips positive over the deepest inventory on the board. A quiet drift into it gets bought; a volatility-expansion flush can undercut it before it holds.

• SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755 — an accelerant, not a fade. The one-day book is short gamma at this strike, so a push through it runs.

• SPX 7,775-7,800 / ES 7,780-7,805 — grind and stall. Price is drawn up into the wall and decelerates in it.

Posture: volatility is compressed and easing — VIX 14.25, down 0.03 on the session and near the bottom of its range. That is a supporting read, not a neutral one: a compressed, falling surface is what lets a containment structure hold, and it is why the levels above are worth trading from rather than fading blind. What this board does not carry is a spot-vol beta — the measure of how hard a move in volatility pushes price — so this plan does not claim a direction for that link. The strike structure carries the read; vol tells you the weather it is happening in.

Structure Overview

The board is a box with a hard ceiling, a hard floor and a soft middle, and price is sitting in the lower half of it — not the middle.

• Where price actually is. Cash was closed Monday for Labor Day; ES traded a shortened session that halted at 1:00 PM ET, last trading at 7,707 futures after printing a 7,703 futures low. The board’s own spot is Friday’s frozen cash close — 7,712 cash, 7,717 futures — so every level below is quoted against a market that has already ticked down toward the pocket.

• The rails. The ceiling is a zone, not a tick: SPX 7,775-7,800 / ES 7,780-7,805, where the board’s peak gamma wall and its peak vanna node sit on top of each other. The floor is also a zone: SPX 7,600-7,630 / ES 7,605-7,635, where gamma flips positive over the deepest dealer inventory on the board.

• The middle is where you wait. Between SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 and the floor the near-dated books are short gamma with no wall to defend, so the shelves at SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680, SPX 7,660 / ES 7,665 and SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655 are stairs a flush walks down rather than places price stops. Work the edges of the box and wait in the middle for price to come to a level.

• The one intraday exception. Tuesday carries a live expiration whose charm turns over inside SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730. That band is a close magnet for one session only and is gone on Wednesday.

• The week’s shape. For ES the week runs from Monday’s shortened session through Friday; for SPX cash it starts Tuesday, with a live expiration that day and again at Friday’s weekly expiration. Friday thins every near-dated anchor between SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 and SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755 and leaves the month-carried levels standing.

• What would change the architecture. A daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 turns the ceiling into a floor; a daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 ends the box on the downside. Short of one of those, this is a two-sided map.

Term Structure

Classification: BALANCED

Read the row that matches how long you intend to hold. The one-day and one-week rows are today’s and this week’s range; the monthly and all-expiration rows are the structure a swing position sits on. Support and resistance are quoted for every window in the table, each with the DTE to trade it — a one-day level is not tradeable with a monthly option, and the reverse is worse.

The split that matters is a sign change, not a concentration. Dealers are short gamma in the one-week and two-week books (-$44.7M and -$45.6M) and long from the monthly expiration outward (+$51.2M monthly, +$142.8M across all expirations) — short into the pocket beneath spot, long into the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 wall above it. So the further out you look, the more the book dampens; inside this week it amplifies. That is why the shelves running down from SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 toward the floor behave like stairs, while the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ceiling is a genuine cap — its resistance is built in the monthly and all-expiration books, which are not going anywhere.

Carry implication: Month-carried and survives Friday’s expiration: SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610, SPX 7,630 / ES 7,635, SPX 7,660 / ES 7,665, SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 and SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 — those are the structural anchors a swing can be hung on. The SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705, SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 and SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755 anchors are two-week levels that thin out after next week’s expiration, and the SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722 pin is a one-day level that does not exist on Wednesday.

Vol Regime Context

VIX 14.25 spot

The volatility regime is LOW and compressing. Spot VIX printed 14.25 on this read — below the 15.86 line that separates low from normal on the one-year baseline, and around the 10th percentile of the past year. The baseline was refreshed today, so that is a live comparison rather than a stale one, and it barely moved from the prior read at 14.28.

• What compression does here. It is the fuel for the long-vanna dealer books. While implied volatility keeps bleeding, the dampening levels above and below tighten the box rather than break it, and the pin band into Tuesday’s close firms up.

• What expansion does. It inverts the read. The vanna support at SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680 strengthens on falling volatility and flips against you on a genuine expansion, and vanna at the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor is negative — so a flush that arrives with volatility rising is repelled from the floor instead of drawn into it.

• Standard polarity is in force. Implied volatility sits at the low end of its baseline, so the elevated-volatility inversion that flips how vanna levels behave is not switched on this week.

Vol Read + Catalyst Impact

The spot-volatility relationship did not resolve on this pull, so this plan does not claim one. What that costs is a confirmation, not a level: the spot-vol gauge is what tells you whether dealer hedging has decoupled from its usual response to price. Nothing is frozen and no range-bracket override applies, but nothing is being confirmed either.

• Read it off the structure instead. The dealer books say what the gauge normally would. Long vanna at the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 ceiling means falling volatility pulls price up into the wall and stalls it there; negative vanna at the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor means a volatility-driven flush is pushed away from the floor rather than into it. Quiet strength gets further than violent strength, and quiet weakness finds a bid where violent weakness does not.

• Catalyst impact. Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI are the two catalysts that can re-price the whole board, with the 10-year and 30-year auctions and two after-the-close earnings reports on either side of them. A catalyst that expands volatility does more than move price: it flips the sign on how the SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680 shelf and the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor behave, which is why a level that held all week can fail on the print.

• Until then. The board is compressed and the structure is doing the work. Levels are the read this week; the volatility data is a caveat on it, not a second opinion.

Intraday Execution Layer — Tuesday 0DTE

Intraday levels only — the weekly range above still runs the show. Use them to time entries inside it, not to flip the bias.

0DTE hinge SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722 — where the 0DTE book flips from one side of the tape to the other. The series crosses 9 times, so this is the crossing nearest price, not a single unambiguous pin.

Review the updated 0DTE data in Volland through the session — Delta Decay is a live, at-price positioning tell that fluctuates as 0DTE positions build and unwind, so re-check the board intraday and let it lead the 0DTE read.

0DTE expiry only — every level below wipes at today’s cash close. By convention the session hands off gamma 9:30-10:30 ET, then vanna 10:30-2:00 ET, then charm 1:30-3:30 ET — a typical sequence, not a measurement off this pull.

0DTE setup shaping (Tuesday). These setups are shaped by the 0DTE framework — anchored to strikes within ~55 points of spot (one opening straddle), and read Delta Decay first as the 0DTE positioning tell once the session is live:

• Setup D — out-of-bounds > SPX 7,620 / ES 7,625 (dealers hedge immediately — invalidation/acceleration); pin/brakes at SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722.

Key Levels Table

All levels paired SPX cash / ES futures (ES = SPX + 5.0). Severity icons: 🔴 critical / 🟠 strong / 🟡 moderate / 🟢 supportive / 🔵 reference-only.

Term Stack legend: [0] 0DTE (today’s expiry) · [W] Weekly · [2W] Two-week · [M] Monthly · [0-30d] the first month of expirations · [all] all expirations · [Y] Yearly · [chart] chart-anchor only. Tags concatenate with + to show confluence.

Dealer Inventory column: how much dealer delta is parked at that strike, and which way it leans — what dealers hold there, not what they are about to do. It is a size reading: a big number means moves through here are violent, not that the level holds, and it says nothing on its own about direction. What the level does is the Greek read in Structural Role.

Driver legend: vanna-led = volatility-driven — rising implied volatility makes this level act on price harder, falling implied volatility takes the force out of it · gamma-led = structural — it holds or breaks on price itself · charm-led = time-decay — its grip changes with the clock, not with price · a + confluence callout = two forces stacked, added conviction.

Structural Ladder

⏫ UPSIDE LEG 4 ───────────────────────────────────
 SPX 8,000 / ES 8,005   █████████  vanna -$1.24B [2W] — Negative-vanna transit node · → 7,800
 SPX 7,900 / ES 7,905   ████████  gamma +$22.8M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Furthest live ceiling · secondary
⏫ UPSIDE LEG 3 ───────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,850 / ES 7,855   ██████████  gamma +$16.4M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Cap above the wall · secondary
 SPX 7,825 / ES 7,830   ████  gamma -$7.0M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Waypoint above the wall · secondary
⏫ UPSIDE LEG 2 ───────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805   ███████████████████  gamma +$84.4M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — The week's converged ceiling · shelf 7,790–7,810 · → 8,000 / 7,775
⏫ UPSIDE LEG ───────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780   █████████  gamma +$30.8M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Upside Resistance, not wall · → 7,800 / 7,700
 SPX 7,760 / ES 7,765   ██████  charm +$340K under $20.3M bar [W+all] — Last shelf before Bullish drift · secondary
 SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755   ███████████████████  gamma +$12.0M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Trigger, not a ceiling · secondary
🎯 CURRENT LEG (SPX 7,700-7,740 / ES 7,705-7,745 — the rungs bracketing spot) ────────────────
 SPX 7,740 / ES 7,745   ████████  gamma +$3.9M under $4.2M bar [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Pivot below the trigger · secondary
 SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730   █████████████████████  gamma +$10.0M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — First real brake overhead · secondary
 >>> SPOT SPX 7,712 / ES 7,717 <<<
 SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705   █████████████████████████████  gamma -$36.9M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Top of the pocket · shelf 7,710–7,710 · → 7,775 / 7,600
⏬ DOWNSIDE LEG ─────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,685 / ES 7,690   ███████  charm +$100K under $20.3M bar [W+all] — First step below pin · secondary
 SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680   ██████████████  gamma -$18.8M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Vanna shelf inside pocket · secondary
 SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655   ████████████████  charm +$754K under $20.3M bar [W+all] — Mid-pocket shelf on Bullish drift · secondary
⏬ DOWNSIDE LEG 2 ─────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,630 / ES 7,635   ██████  gamma -$5.5M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Last structure above floor · secondary
 SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605   ████████████████████████████████████  gamma +$31.9M [2W+0-30d+all] — Pocket floor, buy edge · → 7,700 / 7,000
 SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580   ███████████████  gamma +$9.1M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Regime-flip print below floor · secondary
⏬ DOWNSIDE LEG 3 ─────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,565 / ES 7,570   ████████  gamma +$3.1M under $4.2M bar [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Minor catch below flip · secondary
 SPX 7,525 / ES 7,530   █████████████████  gamma +$10.3M [2W+0-30d+all] — Resting place on cascade · secondary
 SPX 7,500 / ES 7,505   ██████████████████████████████████  gamma +$20.3M [W+2W+0-30d+all] — The board's second floor · secondary
⏬ DOWNSIDE LEG 4 ─────────────────────────────────
 SPX 7,485 / ES 7,490   █  ⊘ gamma +$900K under $4.2M bar [W+2W+0-30d+all] — Thin reference under floor · secondary
 SPX 7,000 / ES 7,005   ███████████  ⊘ vanna -$2.03B [all] — Far marker, structure resets · → 7,600

Read the ladder as a box with two live edges and a long stretch of transit in between.

• The ceiling edge is SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805. Every driver Greek converges there and dealer gamma is positive, so pushes into it get sold rather than chased — it is a magnet first and a wall second. Above it the structure thins into the cap at SPX 7,850 / ES 7,855 and the furthest ceiling at SPX 7,900 / ES 7,905.

• The floor edge is SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605. That is where dealer gamma turns positive again over the board’s largest block of net-long dealer inventory, which is what ends the amplifying stretch above it. Beneath it the next genuine dampening is the second floor at SPX 7,500 / ES 7,505.

• The middle is where price travels, not where it turns. From the pin band at SPX 7,710 / ES 7,715 down to the floor, gamma is negative — dealers amplify moves through this stretch instead of absorbing them, so a flush covers ground faster than the rung spacing suggests. Wait for price to reach an edge; the middle is transit, not an entry.

• The rung that decides the session is SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705. It carries the heaviest inventory on the near board, but gamma is negative through it, so it gets amplified rather than defended when it goes. Holding it keeps the pin band in reach; losing it opens the pocket.

• Two prints retire this read. A daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 turns the ceiling into support and the week becomes trend-up. A daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 ends the range and the rungs built on it.

Bias

Base case: the corridor holds and both edges get worked. Dealer gamma is net long at the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 wall (+$84.4M all-expiration, the board’s peak concentration) and net long again at the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 flip (+$31.9M) — two dampeners with a stretch of negative gamma strung between them. Price sits on the lower half of that corridor, so the floor is the nearer and better-funded edge, and there is no net lean either way.

The read, by zone:

• SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730 — the pin band. Positive gamma across it, and the 0DTE charm series crosses zero at SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722. That is the close magnet: into the afternoon, drift back toward it is the default, and pushing away from it fights the hedge.

• SPX 7,650-7,630 / ES 7,655-7,635 — the buy zone. The charm floor at SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655 sits over the gamma shelf at SPX 7,630 / ES 7,635, with the deeper pocket floor at SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 beneath it. This is where the week’s best-funded long lives.

• SPX 7,775-7,800 / ES 7,780-7,805 — the fade zone. One-week vanna is +$137.7M at SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 — a vol-driven magnet that pulls price in as vol falls — with the gamma wall right above it. A first touch tends to stall rather than break.

• In between, there is no dealer structure worth trading against. That is where you wait for price to come to a level, not where you take one.

The tells:

• Break-up tell: acceptance above SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730, the first real brake, where dealers hold short inventory against positive gamma. Clear it and hold it and SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755, then the SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 magnet, open up.

• Break-down tell: loss of SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705, the top of the pocket and the same print the rest of this plan names. Below it price is inside the negative-gamma stretch that runs down to SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605, where hedging feeds a move instead of absorbing it — SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680 and then the buy zone arrive faster than the chart suggests. The SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 shelf a few points beneath is where the continuation long stops out, not where the break is confirmed.

Stand down on a daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 or below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580. Either print ends the corridor read outright — wait for the new frame rather than fading the break.

On Watch This Week

The multi-week frame is a near-balanced level stack inside a compressed-vol tape, and the whole thing hinges on one shelf. Spot enters at 7,712 cash / 7,717 futures, just above it.

The pivot — SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705. The largest near-spot level on the board, and the block of long dealer inventory price is sitting directly on — though the deeper block below spot is the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 floor. Everything below reads as one story and everything above reads as another.

If it holds:

• A weekly close through the SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 to SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755 band turns the SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 to SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 area from a cap into a springboard.

• SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 is the level to watch up there. It was the level to sell for a month — price tagged it four times and was rejected every time — but the longer-dated dealer positioning at that strike flipped from pushing price away to pulling it in, and the options that damp movement at the strike went from absent to present. The honest caveat: that read is decaying rather than strengthening, no fresh confirmation landed on this board, and the live price-tape leg of its corroboration could not be measured this pull — there was no session series to measure it against. The week’s trend-up print is a daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805. Nothing in this week’s setup list trades it directly; it is carried in the multi-week book, and its first real confirmation event is the September quarterly expiration.

If it goes:

• A weekly close below SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 hands price to SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605, where three dealer forces line up on the same side and the largest below-spot dealer inventory on the board sits. The week’s trend-down print is a daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580.

• Beneath that the next real shelf is SPX 7,500 / ES 7,505 — roughly 210 points from spot. That gap is an air pocket, not a ladder.

What would change the frame:

• Vol. VIX at 14.25 is near the floor of its range, so any expansion re-prices the whole map fast and asymmetrically. Friday already delivered a hawkish sell-off that did not expand vol — that is the specific branch that suspends both multi-week reads rather than confirming either, and this week’s two inflation prints are where it gets tested again.

• September quarterly expiration, Friday the 18th. Both reads carry their weight in the two-week and monthly windows that roll clears, so it is the first genuine confirmation-or-dissolution event for each. The S&P rebalance trade prints into the same close.

• A standing caution. The SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 shelf was invalidated once before at an earlier vintage. Treat it as untested, not as proven — its size is not immunity.

Macro Context

The macro week is back-loaded, and it is about one question: whether the Fed hikes on September 16.

• Rate path. August payrolls printed 162,000 against roughly 53,000-65,000 expected, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Fed funds futures moved from under 50% to roughly a 56-63% chance of a 25 basis point HIKE at the September 16 meeting. This is a hike-risk backdrop, not the usual hold-or-cut one.

• Nobody can soften it. The Fed is in blackout from September 5 through September 17. Governor Waller’s September 3 lean toward holding was contradicted by the next day’s jobs number, and he cannot revisit it before the decision lands. The data does all the talking this week.

• The data. Two inflation prints in the back half: PPI Thursday 9/10 at 8:30 AM ET, CPI Friday 9/11 at 8:30 AM ET. CPI is the only scheduled release left that can reprice the September decision, which concentrates an unusual share of the week’s risk into one 8:30 print. Treasury auctions run 3-year Tuesday, 10-year Wednesday, 30-year Thursday; a poor long-end auction is the cleanest route to higher yields into CPI.

• The calendar shape. Monday was Labor Day. S&P cash was closed and equity-index futures traded a shortened session, halting 1:00 PM ET and reopening 6:00 PM ET, with no settlement price published for the date. The futures week runs Monday’s short session through Friday; the cash week starts with Tuesday’s open. Either way the market comes in on Friday’s information set, not a fresh one.

• Vol. VIX reads 14.25, around the 10th percentile of its own recent range. Options are priced for a benign week, so there is little cushion if either inflation print surprises — the repricing arrives fast rather than gradually.

• Breadth. Participation is neutral and gives no independent lean: about 47% of S&P names sit above their 50-day average, but 35% above the 20-day against 64% above the 200-day. That is a broad long-term base with a narrowing intermediate tape — a caution against any one-way read, not a signal on its own.

Net: nothing binding lands until Thursday, and then everything does. The first half of the week is structure-driven and the second half is event-driven, so a level that holds Tuesday and Wednesday has proved much less than it looks.

Macro Regime Drivers

3 macro forces could shift the regime in the near term — each is mapped below.

• September FOMC decision, mid-month (near-term change expected) — Meeting 2026-09-15/16 with projections; target range 3.50%-3.75%. CME FedWatch odds of a HIKE moved to 60.2% from 49.4% on the August payrolls beat, and the Fed is in blackout 2026-09-05 through 2026-09-17 — no official can soften or confirm that repricing before the decision lands.

• August CPI print, mid-month (near-term change expected) — Friday 2026-09-11, 8:30 AM ET (BLS). Street consensus around +0.4% m/m headline and +0.2% m/m core (consensus figure, not primary-sourced). Because of the blackout this is the only scheduled release in the window that can reprice the September decision, which concentrates an unusual amount of the week’s risk into one 8:30 print.

• September quarterly (triple-witching) expiration, Friday 2026-09-18 (near-term change expected) — The quarter’s largest option roll, with the S&P 500 quarterly rebalance trade printing into the same close (additions and deletions effective prior to the open Monday 2026-09-21). Both active theses carry their weight in the 2wk and monthly windows that this expiration clears, so it is the first genuine confirmation-or-dissolution event for each.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Assessment

WATCH — largely off-cycle for the index, with one awkward cluster.

• Thursday 9/10, after the close: Oracle and Adobe both report. These are the two largest technology prints of the week, and they land in the overnight session immediately before Friday’s 8:30 CPI.

• Friday 9/11, before the open: Kroger. A consumer read, rarely an index-level driver.

The index-level risk here is the stacking, not either name on its own. A large combined gap out of the two Thursday reports re-weights dealer gamma around the SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 shelf overnight, so the structure CPI opens into on Friday morning may not be the structure that closed Thursday afternoon. Nothing on the earnings calendar conflicts with the expiration windows the setups are written on.

Setups

Setup A — Pocket-Floor Reclaim LONG at SPX 7,605-7,618 / ES 7,610-7,623 — Grade B

Time Horizon: SWING-ELIGIBLE Carry Rule: Carry permitted. The anchor level is monthly-and-all-expiration sourced (+$90.7M monthly vanna at SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610, +$31.9M all-expiration gamma at SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605), so it survives Friday’s expiration and next week’s. Roll rather than close flat if the position is working into the monthly.

The trade. The stretch of negative dealer gamma below spot runs from SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 down to SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605, and it ends where gamma flips positive: all-expiration gamma at SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 is +$31.9M, sitting over $20.6B of net long dealer inventory. That is the pocket floor, and it is stacked with chart structure — the SPX 7,601 / ES 7,606 value-area high on it, the SPX 7,613 / ES 7,618 prior-week low and the SPX 7,628 / ES 7,633 value-area low just above. Buy the flush that reaches it and reclaims, not the shallow bounce on the way down. First half at SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610 into the floor itself, second half at SPX 7,618 / ES 7,623 once price has taken back the prior-week low. Entering at the floor is the whole point: it puts the stop underneath the negative-gamma stretch rather than inside it, which is where a shallow entry gets run.

Entry. SPX 7,605-7,618 / ES 7,610-7,623 Gate. Not live on the first touch. This leg arms only on a stall-and-reject — price trades into the zone and then closes back above SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610 on the day. Until that close lands the setup is not armed and there is no trade here.

• Trigger — SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610 — reclaim of the gamma sign-flip after a flush into the floor zone

• Add — SPX 7,618 / ES 7,623 — acceptance back above the prior-week low

Stop. SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 — measured on a daily-close basis, so it takes a close beyond the level to invalidate it, not a touch. Risk. Stop 36.5 points below the entry midpoint — a little over half the roughly 65-point average daily range measured off the last fourteen daily sessions. On futures that is about $1,825 per ES contract at $50 a point. What actually places the stop is structure: it sits under the SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 regime print, so the trade and this plan’s range read end together, and the range figure is context rather than a cap the board grounded. The stop assumes a 14 to 21 day option, which is the horizon the SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610 monthly vanna anchor lives in — do not put this stop distance on a short-dated option. Targets.

• T1 SPX 7,660 / ES 7,665

• T2 SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705 Reward-to-risk. ~1.8:1 to T1 (SPX 7,660 / ES 7,665), ~3.2:1 to T2 (SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705)

Option expression. SPXW 7,600/7,700 call debit spread (14-21).

Invalidation. A daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 ends the trade and ends this plan’s range read at the same time.

Setup B — Pin-Band Continuation LONG at SPX 7,715-7,728 / ES 7,720-7,733 — Grade C

Time Horizon: MULTI-SESSION Carry Rule: Close by Friday unless the position is already through SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755. The anchor levels are one- and two-week sourced and thin out after next week’s expiration; carrying past that needs the SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 monthly node underneath the position, not above it.

The trade. On the live ES clock price sits just under the one-day positive-gamma cluster that runs SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730, with the SPX 7,710 / ES 7,715 value-area high from the 8/31 week on it. Above that, SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 is the first real brake — dealers hold short inventory there against positive gamma. Reclaiming the band and then clearing the brake is what turns this from a bounce into a leg. First half on the reclaim at SPX 7,715 / ES 7,720, second half at SPX 7,728 / ES 7,733 once the brake is cleared. This is a probe, not a primary — the shorter-timeframe regime has not settled, which is why it grades C and why the reclaim has to print before the trade exists at all.

Entry. SPX 7,715-7,728 / ES 7,720-7,733 Gate. Not live until a daily close above SPX 7,715 / ES 7,720 lands. Until that close, the setup is not armed.

• Trigger — SPX 7,715 / ES 7,720 — reclaim and hold of the one-day pin band

• Add — SPX 7,728 / ES 7,733 — the SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 brake clears

Stop. SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 Risk. Stop 25.5 points below the entry midpoint, which is roughly four-tenths of the ~65-point average daily range measured off the last fourteen daily sessions and about the ceiling for a one-to-three session hold. On futures that is about $1,275 per ES contract at $50 a point. The stop is placed at the SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 shelf because that is the structure the continuation read dies on; the range figure informs it, it does not ground it. The stop assumes a 2 to 4 day option on the trigger leg. Targets.

• T1 SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755

• T2 SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780 Reward-to-risk. ~1.8:1 to T1 (SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755), ~3.2:1 to T2 (SPX 7,775 / ES 7,780)

Option expression. SPXW 7,725/7,775 call debit spread (2-4).

Invalidation. A loss of SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 puts price back inside the negative-gamma stretch and the continuation read is wrong.

Setup C — Failed-Breakout Rejection SHORT at SPX 7,778-7,795 / ES 7,783-7,800 — Grade B

Time Horizon: MULTI-SESSION Carry Rule: Close by the end of the week. This is a countertrend probe inside a higher-timeframe uptrend, and carrying one of those past the week is how a good rejection becomes a bad position.

The trade. SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 is the board’s peak concentration: all-expiration gamma +$84.4M over vanna +$605.1M, with the SPX 7,801 / ES 7,806 value-area high sitting on it. Positive gamma means dealers dampen, so a first touch tends to stall rather than break. This trade only exists if price pokes ABOVE that wall and then fails back under it — never a blind short into it. First half on the rejection at SPX 7,795 / ES 7,800, second half at SPX 7,778 / ES 7,783 if the SPX 7,770 / ES 7,775 point of control gives way. Targets are the SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755 pivot and then the SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 brake.

Entry. SPX 7,778-7,795 / ES 7,783-7,800 Gate. Not live on the first touch. This leg arms only on a stall-and-reject — price trades into the zone and then closes back below SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 on the day. Until that close lands the setup is not armed and there is no trade here.

• Trigger — SPX 7,795 / ES 7,800 — rejection back under the SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 wall after a poke above

• Add — SPX 7,778 / ES 7,783 — the point-of-control shelf gives way

Stop. SPX 7,802 / ES 7,807 — measured on a daily-close basis, so it takes a close beyond the level to invalidate it, not a touch. Risk. Stop 15.5 points above the entry midpoint, roughly a quarter of the ~65-point average daily range measured off the last fourteen daily sessions. On futures that is about $775 per ES contract at $50 a point. The stop is placed on structure, two points above this plan’s own upside flip print, so a reclaim of the wall ends the trade and ends the range read together. The stop assumes a 3 to 5 day option on the trigger leg. Targets.

• T1 SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755

• T2 SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 Reward-to-risk. ~6.4:1 to T1 (SPX 7,750 / ES 7,755), ~10.0:1 to T2 (SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730)

Option expression. SPXW 7,800/7,750 put debit spread (3-5).

Invalidation. A daily close back above SPX 7,802 / ES 7,807 — that is a reclaim of the wall and this plan flips trend-up.

Setup D — 0DTE Pin Reclaim LONG at SPX 7,696-7,706 / ES 7,701-7,711 — Grade C

Time Horizon: INTRADAY-ONLY Setup Type: Intraday (brakes / scalp) Carry Rule: Does not carry. The structure behind it expires with the Tuesday contract and does not exist on Wednesday.

The trade. The Tuesday expiration carries a positive-gamma cluster from SPX 7,710-7,725 / ES 7,715-7,730 with dealer-long inventory across it, and the one-day charm series crosses zero at SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722. That is the close magnet. Live price sits below it at SPX 7,702 / ES 7,707 — the ES clock, about 11 points under the Friday cash close the rest of this plan’s levels are struck against — inside the shelf that runs SPX 7,696-7,706 / ES 7,701-7,711. Buy the dip into that shelf for the rotation back up to the pin. Everything in this trade is inside about one straddle width of spot, which is the only radius a one-day option has any influence over. It does not carry overnight.

Entry. SPX 7,696-7,706 / ES 7,701-7,711

• Trigger — SPX 7,706 / ES 7,711 — first touch of the shelf from above

• Add — SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 — deeper tag into the shelf base

Stop. SPX 7,692 / ES 7,697 Risk. On a one-day option the premium IS the stop. The price break sits 9 points below the entry midpoint, roughly a seventh of the ~65-point average daily range measured off the last fourteen daily sessions, which is about the ceiling for an intraday hold. On futures the equivalent is about $450 per ES contract at $50 a point. This assumes a 0DTE option — never put a swing-width stop on one. Targets.

• T1 SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722

• T2 SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 Reward-to-risk. ~0.8:1 to T1 (SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722), ~1.4:1 to T2 (SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730)

Option expression. SPXW 9/08 7,700 call (0-0).

Invalidation. A loss of SPX 7,692 / ES 7,697 breaks the shelf and puts the negative-gamma stretch in charge; the pin read is wrong.

What Not to Do

• Don’t trade the middle of the corridor as though it were a level — between the SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680 pivot and the fade zone’s lower edge there is no dealer structure worth pressing against, so wait for price to arrive at an edge and let that edge dictate the leg. Targets may sit inside that span; entries may not. This rule retires the moment a daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 lands — from that close the range is over and it no longer applies.

• Don’t carry the same conviction into Setup B and Setup D as into Setup A and Setup C: B and D are C-grade probes held back by an unsettled shorter-timeframe regime and a one-day clock, while A and C are B-grade and each gated on structure that has to prove itself before the trade exists.

• Don’t chase Setup A on the way down — it is a reclaim of the SPX 7,600 / ES 7,605 flip, and buying the flush before it turns is how a good level becomes a bad entry. Same discipline on Setup C: no short until a poke above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 has actually failed back under it.

Quick Reference

• Spot: SPX 7,712 / ES 7,717

• Today’s range expectation: About 65 points — the average daily range across the last fourteen completed sessions — roughly SPX 7,675-7,740 / ES 7,680-7,745 around spot, with the SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 shelf as the first thing to give on the low side.

• Hard ceiling: SPX 8,000 / ES 8,005 (the two-week vanna transit above the SPX 7,900 / ES 7,905 gamma ceiling — the span between them is unmapped, not clear)

• Active ceiling: SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730

• Magnet: SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722

• Active floor: SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655

• Cascade floor: SPX 7,630 / ES 7,635

• Next macro catalyst: Tue 9/8, 1:00 PM ET — US Treasury 3-Year Note auction (low impact). The week’s first real test is PPI on Thu 9/10 at 8:30 AM ET; CPI on Fri 9/11 at 8:30 AM ET is the decisive print, with the Fed in blackout through 9/17.

• Regime gate prints: A daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 = upside trigger; a daily close below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 = downside trigger

Watch List

In the order it is likely to matter:

• The 0DTE pin into Tuesday’s close — SPX 7,717 / ES 7,722. The 0DTE charm series crosses zero there, inside the positive-gamma cluster running SPX 7,710 / ES 7,715 to SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730. The tell is the last hour: price grinding back toward that band confirms the pin; price accepted below SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 into the close says the pin lost and the negative-gamma stretch beneath is in charge.

• SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730 — the brake. Positive gamma with dealers holding short inventory against it. Watch whether pushes into it stall or clear. A hold above is the cleanest upside tell on the plan.

• SPX 7,696 / ES 7,701 — the shelf. The line between the range holding and the negative-gamma stretch running. Lose it and SPX 7,675 / ES 7,680, then SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655, arrive quickly.

• SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 — the wall. The only place a short is earned, and only on a poke above that closes back under. A daily close above it ends the corridor read.

• Thu 9/10, 8:30 AM ET — PPI. The week’s first inflation print and the most likely single cause of vanna — the vol-driven magnet at SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 — changing sign. Oracle and Adobe both report after that same close, which can re-weight near-spot structure overnight.

• Fri 9/11, 8:30 AM ET — CPI. The decisive print, and with the Fed in blackout through 9/17 the only scheduled release left that can reprice the September decision.

• The vol read itself. The spot-volatility gauge did not resolve this pull, so the vol-behaviour leg under every level above is unread. Watch for it to come back before leaning on any of these levels harder than the structure alone justifies.

Session Summary

This is a level-to-level week, not a directional one. Price comes into Tuesday on the lower half of the SPX 7,650 / ES 7,655 to SPX 7,790 / ES 7,795 corridor, with support layered close beneath at SPX 7,710 / ES 7,715, SPX 7,700 / ES 7,705, SPX 7,690 / ES 7,695 and SPX 7,685 / ES 7,690, and the first real brake overhead at SPX 7,725 / ES 7,730.

• The two edges are where the money is. Below, a flush that reaches SPX 7,605 / ES 7,610 and reclaims it is buying where gamma turns positive over the board’s largest block of dealer inventory. Above, a push through SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 that fails back under it is a fade at the heaviest node on the board. Everything else is transit between them.

• In between, let price come to you. The band price is already working is dense enough that there is no open space to chase into — the level it reaches decides the next leg, not a forecast about which one it reaches first.

• Know what ends the read. A daily close above SPX 7,800 / ES 7,805 or below SPX 7,575 / ES 7,580 retires the range and this plan follows the print, not the corridor.

• Respect the calendar. Volatility is compressed at spot VIX 14.25 into PPI on Thursday, Oracle and Adobe after that session’s close, and CPI on Friday. A compressed surface into a repricing is what punishes a passive fade, so the back half of the week deserves a fresh look at the board rather than a carried assumption.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

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2/10 ES Weekly Plan

Another week where we had a major selloff overnight Sunday into Monday's opening only for price to find a bottom and rally. Rally did it do going from 5923 to 6100spx and then doing what it has done for 3 weeks where on Friday it faced resistance at key levels and sold off with news midday from the Trump admin on tariffs pushing price down.

As we have discussed on multiple times - hanging on to trades without taking profits at key levels is risky and without much dealer put support below us price can go and go fast. For example, here is what we said on Friday where we called 6100spx to trade, but warned on a failed breakout and the importance of NOT losing 6075 - I bet you we see the 6000 part of that statement come true still. That prior sentence I had written prior to futures opening but we bottomed out at 5992spx or 6014es and had a failed breakdown of 6000 that triggered a trade all the way to our resistance at 6050spx...Wild start to the week and if you are a futures trader you are loving the action of the past 3 Sundays...

From Friday's Trade Plan...

6040-6045 is still supportive going into tomorrow. Now if you remove tomorrow's expiry and look at just next week if we pop above 6075 and then come back to lose it and then 6050-6040-6045 we could be in for a larger sell off that could target all the way down to 6000.

2/3 - Weekly Recap:

Before we kick into next week's trade plan let's review what we discussed last week.

As we neared the market open and during our Market Moves show last Monday we said wait #paytiently and let the trade and data come. The opening of Monday was exactly that a bit wild and the market had to rebalance as we hit a low of 5910spx in futures action. As that rebalancing was occurring we opened near 5923spx on Monday and pushed up to 5960spx only to reject where we didn't called out prior to data coming out how important 5925spx was and that was an ideal entry point.

We held support at 5925spx and while the data wasn't the only saving grace we got news on deal making with the tariffs from Mexico and boy did we rise from 5925spx and push till we got to 6100spx where we said sellers would be present and did that show on Friday.

All-in-all another great week and analysis provided to you here in real time.

Market Moves with Volland

Don't forget to join Wiz and myself in our weekly installment of the "Market Moves with Volland." You can set a notification and join us live at 8:30am est on YouTube.

We will go through this upcoming week’s dealer positions, key levels, and how we plan to trade the week.

Biggest News Catalysts on the Week

The headlines this week are going to be OPEX, FED Chair Powell's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. We also have CPI, PPI, and retail sales data this week. It won't be a "vol-less" week that's for sure.

• Mon - EU CPI, US Manufacturing PMI & Prices, FED Speakers

• Tue - US Jolts Job Openings, FED Speakers

• Wed - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Services PMI, FED Speakers

• Thur - UK Monetary Policy, US Unemployment Claims, FED Speakers

• Fri - US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Employment Rate, US Avg Hourly Earnings m/m, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, FED Speaker

Source:

• https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=this

Earnings

While NVDA awaits there are some earnings this week to be on the lookout for such as HOOD, SMCI and COIN.

Weekly Options Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~97.70 points. That puts us at 6123.69 to the upside and 5928.29 to the downside.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

2/10 ES Weekly Trade Plan

TLDR:

We have already tested the lower ranges of the weekly support level - 6000 - and we have also tested a key resistance - 60..

To see the rest of this week’s ES Trade Plan and our daily plans - be sure to subscribe to Volland - available at https://vol.land - where we provide weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis and trade plans.

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• My Trading Rules -

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• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month of Volland.

1/27 - Weekly Recap:

A really good recap and analysis of last week's move where we called for risk above 6122es and support at 5932es. Between the lows and highs of ES we provided a 175pt move in last week's trade plan. Let's dig into some of those details...

From our trade plan last week…

* IF bulls do not take back 6090.50 and then 6122es we need to consider rips to sell and longer term swings need to get above these levels again if you want to play it safe going long

* IF 6032-6025es breaks this will continue to chase that 5989es weekly point of control and test that low volume node at 5970-5907es. 5932es in this zone is the level to watch that will trigger a major shift in the markets and a more bearish tone...

Looking at all expirations 5950-5955spx is going to be a key area of interest and aligns with last week's low and near our key ES level from the past 2 weeks which is 5989es. 5900 is the most important level to the downside but prior to that 5950 is next most critical level.

It was in futures action Sunday night into Monday morning where the market and tech sold off majorly on the news of Deepseek and its implications on the larger AI and chip/data center industry. Anything and everything touching AI took a beat down into this day. Yet levels are levels and we came within ear shots of the key 5900spx level that we called out in last week's plan as the most important level to the downside and a great buy the dip opportunity.

For those unable to enter in futures action the open on Monday provided a great opportunity for us to enter long and we did that riding those longs into Tuesday as we entered the 6075 level.

We then called the additional risk above 6100spx and to be wary of trades above this level going into the FOMC and provided guidance that 6025 and a failed breakdown of this level would be ideal to long with a neutral/dovish FED.

Market Moves with Volland

Don't forget to join Wiz and myself in our weekly installment of the "Market Moves with Volland." You can set a notification and join us live at 8:30am est on YouTube.

We will go through this upcoming week’s dealer positions, key levels, and how we plan to trade the week.

Biggest News Catalysts on the Week

• Mon - EU CPI, US Manufacturing PMI & Prices, FED Speakers

• Tue - US Jolts Job Openings, FED Speakers

• Wed - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Services PMI, FED Speakers

• Thur - UK Monetary Policy, US Unemployment Claims, FED Speakers

• Fri - US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Employment Rate, US Avg Hourly Earnings m/m, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, FED Speaker

Source:

• https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar?week=this

Earnings

Earnings season continues this week with the likes of PLTR, PYPL, SPOT, AMD, GOOGL, CMG, UBER, DIS, QCOM, F, AMZN reporting.

Weekly Options Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~104.07 points. That puts us at 6144.60 to the upside and 5936.46 to the downside.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

To see this week’s ES Trade Plan and our daily plans - be sure to subscribe to Volland - available at https://vol.land - where we provide weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis and trade plans.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off first month of Volland.

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DMLIVE200 to get $200 off your 3 months at Volland.

Futures are pushing already and we have a short week with the US Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. Expect things to be slow and volume to be lower than normal...With that let's jump right in.

11/18 - Weekly Recap:

Last week our general lean was that IF we got and held above 5900 we would find ourselves pushing back up towards 5950 and then 5975. This analysis played out pretty well and the big factor on the week was volatility. While volatility started earlier in the week to lead a bit of choppiness it was once we found support at 5850 and 5860 after Wednesday's morning session that we bounced from these levels - tested 5900 again - and finally got our push up towards 5969 to close on the week with a high of 5972...

Furthermore we sent an update going into Tuesday's session suggesting the same - either find support below spot for a reversal OR wait to long 5900.

Market Moves with Volland

Don't forget to join Wiz and myself in our weekly installment of the "Market Moves with Volland." You can set a notification and join us live at 8:30am est on YouTube -

Biggest News Catalysts on the Week

• Mon - no catalyst

• Tue - US Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales, US Richmond Manufacturing Index

• Wed - US GDP, US Unemployment Claims, US Durable Goods Orders, US Chicago PMI, US PCE, US Pending Home Sales, US FOMC Meeting Minutes

• Thur - Thanksgiving Holiday

• Fri - no catalyst

Earnings

Weekly Options Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~65.15 points. That puts us at 6034.49 to the upside and 5904.19 to the downside.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

Vanna Overview

We are getting more positive vanna coming back into the market with our aggregate vanna trend. We are still not quite in the clear, but this positive to see especially for any kind of year end rally...Remember aggregate vanna is a leading indicator. So I will use this to baseline some of my bias, but I don't use much on it to do weekly or intraday trading.

Let's kick into reviewing cumulative vanna exposure. This view is for all expirations.

The key to any kind of movement in this chart will come down to volatility - while we do have vanna put support below spot it is minimal and IF vol (volatility) increases we are going to enter and go right through that selling pressure zone. Just looking at this view we are quite bearish...

• 5900-5905 - major support and need VIX and a catalyst to keep pushing price below this level

• 5925-5960 - support IF we see VOL/VIX compress as we enter this zone

• 5965-5995 - sellers sit here ONLY with VIX/VOL increasing

Let's now take a look at this from a weekly view...

What we can see here on the weekly view is interesting - where the neutral chop zone from all expirations looks a bit different.

• 5900-6000 is where we seem to be stuck in a range on the weekly view

• 5925-5930 - major area of support

• 5950 - weekly support, but minor - it breaks we see 5925

• 6025-6030 - get and hold above 6000 and here is our next targets

• 6050 - next area of resistance above 6030

If we take a look at the weekly vanna strikes and chart we can zoom in on the specific strikes that are important...

• You can clearly see this week is all about VIX/IV - it increases we go down and we sell towards 5925. We hold and get above 6000 then 6025 then 6050

Resistance:

• 5990 - positive vanna/magnet and pivot - stay and hold above this more than likely we head towards 6025-6030

• 6000 - negative vanna - resistance - while 5990 is important this is the next major level to get past and our way towards 6025-6030

• 6025-6030 - positive vanna - magnets and pivots for higher prices above to 6050

• 6040-6050 - positive vanna and negative vanna - magnet and area of resistance

Support:

• 5925-5900 - major zone of support

• 5885 - positive vanna/magnet - IF vol/vix increase this will be a potential target - I likely doubt that, but if there is unexpected VOL this is where we could go to

• 5870 - negative vanna - support

Looking at the all expiration vanna strike chart we find the following key levels...

Resistance:

• 5995-6000 - positive vanna and magnets - they won't be resistance if we continue to see VOL/VIX continue lower

• 6020-6025 - magnet and resistance - 6020 negative vanna and 6025 positive vanna

• 6050-6055 - magnets - massive positive vanna and getting through this zone will further need what I assume will be a compressed VIX by the time we get here...

Support:

• 5950 - magnet - IF VOL increases this is where it will want to sell price towards

• 5925-5900 - negative vanna's - will act as support unless there is a major catalyst to break it down

Vanna Summary

In summary I am long if we see the 5925-5900. 6000 is the key level to the upside for bulls to get more continuation up to target 6025 and then 6050.

Resistance:

• 5990-6000 - positive vanna and magnets - they won't be resistance if we continue to see VOL/VIX continue lower

• 6015-6020 - negative vanna - will be a speed bump on the road to price above - watch how VOL/VIX reacts at this level

• 6025-6030 - magnet and resistance - 6020 negative vanna and 6025 positive vanna

• 6050-6055 - magnets - massive positive vanna and getting through this zone will further need what I assume will be a compressed VIX by the time we get here...

Support:

• 5960 - minor support

• 5950 - magnet - IF VOL increases this is where it will want to sell price towards

• 5945 - minor support

• 5925-5900 - negative vanna's - will act as support unless there is a major catalyst to break it down

Gamma Overview

Key Levels on the week are...

• 5900 - massive tower

• 5920

• 5995-6000

• 6025

• 6050-6055

ES Volume Profile Overview

> These are ES levels and NOT SPX - subtract 18pts to get SPX levels

TLDR

• 6015 marks a key pivot and futures has sold off at this level which is the weekly point of control from 11/11 and we go target the VAH from that week at 6043

• 5960 - last week's value area high - if bulls are to defend a level it is this one

Key Levels

• 6043 - 11/11 weekly value area high

• 6015 - 11/11 weekly point of control

• 5960 - weekly value area high

• 5920 - weekly point of control

• 5886 - weekly value area low

• 5876-5809 - low volume node - this is where our buyers came in with strength last week and is a key level we pushed from during election night

11/25 ES Weekly Trade Plan

TLDR

Continuing on our trend we should see ourselves testing near ATH's this week. Look for dips to buy and that zone of 5925-5900 is an amazing opportunity to long unless we have some VOL/VIX come in that is unexpected.

Key Levels for the Week

• 5900-5925 - major support

• 5950-5965 - next zone of support I would buy dips on

• 6000 - stay above this and we are all but certain to target 6025 then 6050

Bullish Bias:

• If there is a failed breakdown of 5925 OR 5950 target 5995-6000, 6015-6020, 6025 (acts as pivot), 6030, 6050-6055

• Above 6000 target 6015-6020, 6025 (acts as pivot), 6030, 6050-6055

  • In case we do not have a failed breakdown and just push above 6000

Bearish Bias:

I don't think this is the week to be thinking bearish and thus if you are shorting it should be scalps and intraday so review the daily plans for a bearish bias outlook.

Any updates to the plan or levels will be provided in the Volland Discord Room. Keep an eye on Volland and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

ES December contract value is approx. 18pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DMLIVE200 to get $200 off your 3 months at Volland.

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

• Support Levels

  • 506-505 depending on where the week opens, if we gap up, I want price to be supported around 505.

  • 502.78, for me this is the most important level to the downside, this is Friday’s low and I think it opens the door down for a retest of last week’s lows around 497-496.

  • 500 big psyche level, this strike also has significant delta exposure that will require hedging.

  • 497.78 weekly MMs implied low.

  • 494.49, this is the weekly low from 2 weeks ago, this is another MAJOR level. This can lead to 486-483 I will update if we head this way.

• Resistance Levels

  • 506.96, last week’s high, I think that if bulls can keep price above this level, they have a good shot of retesting the recent ATH.

  • 507.77-508.69, this would be a gap fill to the upside. Currently this a pretty profound LVN which can act as strong resistance. The Gamma here is positive, which adds weight to its resistance. I would be very cautious around this area. If we reject here it could send us back to 500.

  • 510, if price is then supported above the gap fill, this is the next area I would expect price to head to, I would even say 511.91-513.80.

    • The current November POC is at 512.92 and the MMs weekly implied high is at 513.80.

  • 515.58 most recent ATH.

Market Makers' Weekly Implied Move

• Implied Move: $8.01

• Upper Range: 513.80

• Lower Range: 497.78

Overview

Here is a look at the current monthly volume profile for November. Notice how price came right into the LVN where we have a gap in price. This price area is very important to both sides imo. So far the bears have kept the bulls out. The Friday session was also inside Thursday’s range. This tells me that traders are trapped and that usually causes a decent move, we ar e either going to break range and go, or we are going to break range and fail, leading to a retest of the other side. More on this later.

The 1W chart is inside the previous week as well, this is now setting up for a swing play imo since the weekly participates are now trapped. Last week’s high and low will play a critical role in the price action going forward.

Aggregate Vanna

The current look is building some negative vanna below spot, I would expect dips to be bought if we dip down into the negative vanna. Above current spot price, we have a nice sized magnet sitting at the 510 strike.

The cumulative chart is currently suggesting dips getting bought as we near 494, and 509-510 is where I would expect some sellers.

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Weekly Vanna

This week is a short week and we are coming off a previous inside week. Meaning we have trapped traders and possibly some potential to find a multi week trend.

Key Strikes

• Above - 506, 509, 512, 513

• Below - 502, 501, 499, 497, 494

Here is a 1W on NQ, notice the gap up above last week’s highs, 20,905 - 20,875. I want to see bulls hold this area, if they do, I am expecting a retest of 21,250, but if we fail here under 20,875, I think we will go and test last week’s lows, first at 20,504 then 20,380.

Looking at QQQ, if we gap above last week’s high at 506.96, I think that it is imperative that the bulls then hold that level if we dip. If they cannot hold it, I want to target the lower side of the range at 496.56 - 494.49.

This jives with what vanna is saying for the key levels. If we can stay above the negative vanna at 506, I am expecting a move to 509–510 first, and then a possible retest of recent highs 513-516.

The cumulative weekly vanna chart is suggesting dips being bought into 500 and rallies sold into 509-511.

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

If you want updates for this plan as the week unfolds. I would love to see you in the Volland discord! If you join, please say hello! Don’t be shy!

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Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

What a week - as Wiz and myself called out in our weekly Monday show - except excursions back near 5900spx as long as we are above 5700. We held that level Monday overnight and into Monday's session and never looked back from there. 300pts later and SPX continued to set new ATH's last week with President Trump being elected to his second term. With that win volatility quickly suppressed and off we went up.

11/4 - Weekly Recap:

Our bullish bias played out extremely nice here. Hope you got in at some point - staying above 5700 was the key and we got to 5721 in SPX but in overnight action on ES we did get to 5700spx or 5724es on Monday at midnight est and once more in regular trading hours. This goes to show you why you need to be looking at both ES, SPX when trading the index. The action starts in ES and continues into the opening session. Congrats to those who were able to take this trade idea this week.

Now what? Ultimately, I wouldn't get too bearish - we are in a very bullish period of the market seasonality wise - and until we crack 5850spx IMO you should be looking at dips to buy. We may see some initial selling early in the week to target 5975 OR 5936spx - this second level is where we have a gap from Wednesday into Thursday's session last week.

Let's jump into the trade plan as there is a lot to dissect here now that we are in a post elections view.

Market Moves with Volland

Don't forget to join Wiz and myself in our weekly installment of the "Market Moves with Volland." You can set a notification and join us live at 8:30am est on YouTube -

Biggest News Catalysts on the Week

• Mon - Veteran's Day (Thank you to our service members for your service)

• Wed - CPI

• Thur - PPI, Unemployment Claims, Powell Speaks

• Fri - Retail Sales

Earnings

Weekly Options Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~79.85 points. That puts us at 6075.38 to the upside and 5915.68 to the downside.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

Vanna Overview

While we are entering positive vanna most of this is due to expire with this weeks monthly expiration. So before we get giddy and another 200-300 pt rally forms let's see how we react at a few key levels and how supportive of vanna we have. Again, due to the low amounts of vanna especially after OPEX if we have any reason to sell we will and it won't be as supportive.

Let's kick into reviewing cumulative vanna exposure.

Looking at this from all expirations view...

• 5975 is supportive so IF price sells down there it should be supportive

• 5950 is supportive IF we sell below 5975

• 6000 is resistance up until 6020 so VIX/IV needs to suppress in order for us to pass through this zone

• 6025 until 6045 is full of buyer liquidity

Let's now take a look at this from a weekly view...

• 6000 and above it we are bearish to 6020 - so in order to get through these levels we need to see the VIX/IV further suppress

• 6025 is where we get bullish and a rally towards 6050

• 5975 is the first crack on the weekly view for more selling to occur - otherwise it is supportive

• 5950 and 5930 is where we find support below 5975

If we take a look at the weekly vanna strikes and chart we can zoom in on the specific strikes that are important...

Resistance:

• 6000 - major resistance - weekly vanna magnet - gamma resistance - we really need to see VIX/IV decrease to get past this level

• 6010 - minor resistance

• 6025 - major resistance - weekly negative vanna

• 6050 - major resistance - weekly vanna magnet - we really need to see VIX/IV decrease to get past this level

Support:

• 5975 - major support - weekly negative vanna

• 5960 - minor support - weekly negative vanna

• 5950 - medium support - weekly negative vanna

• 5925 - magnet - medium support - weekly positive vanna

• 5910-5900 - major support - weekly negative vanna

Looking at the all expiration vanna strike chart we find the following key levels...

Resistance:

• 6000 - positive vanna/magnet/pivot

• 6020-6030 - negative vanna/resistance

• 6050-6055 - positive vanna/magnet/pivot

• 6075 - negative vanna

Support:

• 5975 - negative vanna - VIX/IV MUST increase to get past this critical level

• 5960 - negative vanna

• 5950-5945 - negative vanna - medium

• 5940 - positive vanna/magnet/pivot

• 5925 - positive vanna/magnet/pivot

• 5920 - negative vanna - minor

• 5910 - negative vanna - minor

• 5900 - negative vanna - major

Vanna Summary

If we now rap this up by reviewing the all expirations vanna strike chart we can see the following key levels across all timeframes are:

Above Spot:

• 6000 - resistance and if we want to get bullish it will occur above this level

• 6025-6030 - resistance - negative vanna

• 6045-6050 - above 6025-6030 we should guide our way to this level

• 6055 - negative resistance

Below Spot:

• 5975 - the most important level on the week for the bulls - you don't want to lose this level

• 5960 - watch for minor support to come here

• 5950 - medium support this is where we should find ourselves below 5975

• 5925 - positive vanna on all expiration and we need to see VIX/IV increase to take this level out

Gamma Overview

Key Levels on the week are...

• 6000 - massive tower

• 5975

• 5950

• 5910

• 5900

ES Volume Profile Overview

These are ES levels and NOT SPX - subtract 27-30pts to get SPX levels

TLDR

* 6013 - if we get below this expect more selling towards 5971es

Key Levels

• 5800-5907 - low volume node - this is where our buyers came in with strength last week...

• 5971 - weekly value area high

• 5752 - weekly point of control

• 5724 - weekly value area low

11/4 ES Weekly Trade Plan

Key Levels for the Week

• 6000 - if you are bull and want more upside this is the pivot/key level on the week to over take AND hold

• 5975 - critical area of support based on weekly vanna - stay above this and we most likely take out 6000 and hold above it then

• 5950-5925 - gap fill exists here at 5936.14 and a key support zone for the week

You can't really get super bearish unless we start breaking below 5850 - otherwise noise and scalps with puts

Bullish Bias:

• If there is a failed breakdown of 5975 go long to target 6000, 6010, 6025-6030, 6050-6055, 6075

Basically, get above 6000 and hold it we are headed towards 6025 and then 6050

Bearish Bias:

• If there is a failed breakout of 6000 target 5975, 5950, 5930, 5915

There might be a better entry above 6000 such as a failed breakout of 6020-6030 zone - but let's keep an eye on Volland for an entry - at this point I wouldn't be looking to call the top, but instead waiting for a key level to break. Markets aren’t made to be short so keep that in mind as you are looking for that “entry” to determine the top. It is not easy…

Any updates to the plan or levels will be provided in the Volland Discord Room. Keep an eye on Volland and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

ES December contract value is approx. 30pts more than the SPX levels shared - so take ES minus 41pts to get SPX levels. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

A slew of earnings continues this week and we have geopolitics, election, and much more so let's jump into it.

Before we kick into this week let's review what we said last week - I do this not to show my analysis right/wrong - I do this to learn from it. What did we get right and what didn't we get right?

10/21 - Weekly Recap:

1. Our 5875 resistance callout was right and we knew we couldn't be outright bullish unless we got above this level and that's exactly what we got...

2. The 5800 level finally cracked and it lead to a quick 40pt sell that was immediately bought up. Which you could have gone long there with the adjustment in the vanna data in Volland or you could have taken our failed breakdown of 5800 trade which yielded you almost 60pts from that reversal

So I hope you are learning from these trade plans - the levels will continue to be important - even if we go above/below them. They were critical at one point and will be critical going forward. Our weekly and daily vanna levels showed us this where the majority of the volume and $$$'s were at these key critical levels all week.

Market Moves with Volland

Don't forget to join Wiz and myself in our weekly installment of the "Market Moves with Volland." You can set a notification and join us live at 8:30am est on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/live/SpxDZ9ztqfc?si=y0PPHC38lmBNDw4y

Andrew will be joining us again and we will be going through this weeks overview of the SPX, but will be providing you with a look into key earnings reports for this week.

News Catalyst Preview

* Mon - no events

* Tue - US Case Shiller House Price Index, UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings, US Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings

* Wed - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US GDP, US Pending Home Sales

* Thur - BOJ Press Conference, EU CPI, US PCE, US Unemployment Claims, US Employment Cost Index q/q

* Fri - US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate, US Avg Hourly Earnings m/m, US Manufacturing PMI & Prices

Earnings

We have the continuation of Q3 earnings this week and we have some big ones on deck. Some notable companies providing their earnings this week include GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT, INTL, COIN, AMD, F, V, MA and many more...

Weekly Options Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~107.75 points. That puts us at 5915.86 to the upside and 5700.36 to the downside.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

# Vanna Overview

Aggregate vanna continues to consolidate and just stay negative - which has been one of the reason the market has not been able to rise as much on positive news - think of TSLA ER's.

Looking at this from all expirations view...

• We can see the market push up as high as 5900 and find support at 5800, 5785 or 5765-5750 or 5700.

Let's now take a look at this from a weekly view...

• You see a similar view, but you see a much more aggressive bullish trend

• 5790 starts to find buyers if we do see selling in futures

• 5760 and below can trigger the biggest selling on the week IF it were to occur

• Plenty of buying pressure on dealers above spot

If we take a look at the weekly vanna strikes and chart we can zoom in on the specific strikes that are important...

Support:

• 5800-5790 - support and I would watch this zone and how the VIX reactions - will bring volatility or decrease it and that will be your trigger whether this holds or not

• 5770 - Major support on the week

Resistance:

• 5815-5830 - cluster of minor resistance - IF VIX can't go down or IV we will not get through this zone

• 5835 - resistance and we traded near this level a lot last week

• 5850 - magnet and major resistance - this is the first major area of supply and I would wait and assess what catalyst drives us above this level including the VIX/IV to decrease

Vanna Summary

If we now rap this up by reviewing the all expirations vanna strike chart we can see the following key levels across all timeframes are:

Support Levels:

• 5800 - support

• 5790 - magnet - positive vanna

• 5780 - magnet - positive vanna

• 5770 - support

• 5760-5750 - major support - 5750 large negative vanna

Resistance Levels:

• 5820-5825 - resistance

• 5835 - resistance

• 5850 - magnet

• 5860 - magnet

• 5870-5885 - resistance - 5885 large negative vanna

ES Volume Profile Overview

These are ES levels and NOT SPX - subtract 38-40pts to get SPX levels

TLDR

• 5883-5915 - resistance - last week's seller and the prior week sits here - so options data/Volland is going to guide us as we enter into this zone

• 5850-5828 - we developed a HVN throughout the week and its a clear interest to buyers

Key Levels

• 5883.50 - Last week's value area high - if we can't hold this we continue down last week's value area's then

• 5850.50 - last week's point of control

• 5828.50 - last week's value area low

• 5824-5800 - low volume node - major area of support - can't be bearish until we break that

How to Setup Volume Profile

If you are curious how we set our volume profiles and use them there is a great video from Captain that can be found here -

Dark Matter Trade

Captain Wick's Chart Setup

Hello Traders…

Read more

3 years ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Captain Wick

Dynamic Trade Plans

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Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

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10/28 ES Weekly Trade Plan

Key Weekly Levels

• 5850 - resistance - if you are a bull you want to see this level recaptured and we continue to push otherwise I see chop or selling coming in...

• 5800 - support - vanna and gamma - let's see if it holds to push us towards 5885

• 5770 - support - major area of interest to the options market

• 5750 - support

Chop Bias:

• We could face a similar situation as last week stuck between key levels

• 5835-5860 - is our resistance zone - watch for sellers here - and we need a clear catalyst to get through it - it is best to scalp in this zone

• 5800-5750 - is our support zone - we have found buyers here over the past 2 weeks keeping price up

Thus with this analysis I can't say a swing can occur until you break one of these sides and it is best to scalp or WAIT until we have clear direction above or below these zones. You can instead play those extremes - ie short 5860-5850 or long 5800 - but what I can't tell is when those extremes will trade. Thus I recommend scalping these or flying a fly/condor like trade with these zones as its wings.

Any updates to the plan or levels will be provided in our weekly room. Keep an eye on Volland and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

ES December contract value is approx. 38-40pts more than the SPX levels shared - so take ES minus 41pts to get SPX levels. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

Don’t just react to market changes—anticipate them. By understanding option dealer positioning through Volland’s comprehensive tools, you gain insights that can highlight critical levels, potential market support and resistance zones, and shifts in momentum. Ready to see how dealer flows can drive market moves? Upgrade your plan with Volland to access real-time data, leverage the insights of delta, gamma, and vanna hedging, and put yourself on the proactive side of trading.

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TL;DR: Weekly QQQ Plan Summary

• Outlook: Market is forming a "P" shaped profile on the monthly profile; key to watch for support or breakdown in early November.

• Key Support Levels: Critical support zones at 494.43-493 and 489.44-485.

• Key Resistance Levels: Watch 496, 498-501, and 505 for potential breakouts. A move above 505 could lead to a target at 509-510. 

Market Makers' Weekly Implied Move

• Implied Move: $11.91

• Upper Range: 507.23

• Lower Range: 483.41

Key Observations from Last Week

• The shaded box from previous analysis acted as support.

• Weekly Vanna Cumulative Chart: Last week, we highlighted that dips into 486-484 were expected to be bought for a move higher.

  • Outcome: The weekly low was 485.05, while the weekly high reached 500.28.

• Resistance at 500: We hit the weekly high on Friday and ended 5 points below the highs. As mentioned in last week's plan, we anticipated sellers near 500, and this level acted as resistance.

• Focus on Cumulative Vanna Chart: Pay close attention to the cumulative vanna chart, especially for short-dated expirations, as it provided a clear picture of how the week played out.

Overview

• The current monthly profile will close this week, providing new levels to assess.

• Fresh monthly candles will be available, which will help update levels going into Friday and November. 

• We are trading above September’s value area, but the July POC at 496.05 has presented resistance, despite a push into 500 last week.

• October Value Area Levels:

  • VAH: 498.56

  • POC: 494.08

  • VAL: 486.83

• The current profile appears to be forming a "P" shape. How this finalizes will be significant:

  • Scenario 1: If the "P" acts as support, it could be a strong foundation for November.

  • Scenario 2: If the "P" signals weak buyers, we may see further downside. More on this once we enter November.

Longer Term View

• Post-Election Outlook: We will gather more information after the election, particularly as October ends and November begins. The first two weeks of November will be critical in determining market direction.

• Bulls are currently in a favorable spot, but caution is still advised.

• Long-Term Line in the Sand (LiS): The key support level for bulls is around the current October low at 477.40.

• Upside Target: A move above 505 could lead to a push towards 515. Updates will be provided as new price levels are discovered.

Aggregate Vanna Analysis

Key Strikes

• Upside Levels of Interest: 496, 499, 500, 501, 502, 504, 505, 509, 510

• Downside Levels of Interest: 493, 492, 490, 488, 486, 485, 484, 480

Analysis

• Directly above spot, there is negative vanna at 496. Above this strike, the next area of interest is the negative vanna at 499 and the positive vanna at 500-501.

• Beyond 502, the next major resistance levels are 504-505, followed by 509-510.

• Below spot, the levels of interest are 493-492, followed by 490. Below 490, the situation could become riskier, but current data suggests potential buyer interest at these levels.

Cumulative Aggregate Vanna Chart

• Summary: The aggregate cumulative vanna chart displays an upper V shape. As prices move downward, buying pressure is expected to increase, particularly in the 490-485 range. Conversely, as prices rise, sellers are likely to step in around 501-504.

• Overall, it appears we are in a 'buy the dip, sell the rip' environment until further notice.

Weekly Vanna Analysis

Key Strikes

• Upside: 496, 499, 500, 502, 503, 504, 509, 510

• Downside: 495, 492, 490, 489, 485

Cumulative Weekly Vanna Chart

• Summary: The weekly expiration analysis suggests buyer interest near 492-490 and potential selling pressure around 498, followed by 501-503.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels

• 494.43-493: This is a gap from Thursday into Friday, an important zone for the bulls to defend. If the price falls below 493, we could revisit 492.11-489.44.

• Weekly Cumulative Chart Insight: The chart suggests that if we dip to these levels, dealers should be buying, with increased buying interest as we near 485.

• Caution for Bulls: Below 489.44, this could open the door to 485-483.

Resistance Levels

• 495.32-496.05: This zone represents last week's close and includes July's POC. Negative vanna at the 496 strike suggests that if we move above 496, we could see a push towards 498-501.

• 498.56: The current monthly VAH. Above this level, the target is 500.28-501.

• 501: A break above this level targets 503.52-503.64, the current all-time high (ATH).

• 503-504: Negative weekly vanna is at 503, with aggregate vanna at 504. If bulls move above 505, the target shifts to the MMs weekly high at 507.23, potentially reaching 509-510.

Final Thoughts

• Last week’s range was 15 points (485.05-500.28). If the price remains within this range, expect choppy market conditions.

• Ideally, we want to see either last week's high or low break first to establish direction.

• If the price tests the upper side of this range at 500.28, the key decision is whether it will hold support above this level or fail.

  • If 500.28 fails and the price falls back below, we could see a move down towards 490 or lower.

  • If 500.28 is supportive and we breakout above 505, I want to then ultimately target 509-510. 

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

If you want updates for this plan as the week unfolds. I would love to see you in the Volland discord! If you join, please say hello! Don’t be shy!

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Here is this weeks overview and a little insight on how to use Volland and the Volume Profile…

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

• My Trading Rules -

• X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

• YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

We are providing new content such as our weekly overview and to kick that off I share this weeks - August 26 - SPX overview. What are the key levels of support and resistance and where should we enter and target?

Find out all this and how we use Volland Dealer Positioning data to trade. Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month at Volland.

* X Profile - https://x.com/DarkMatterTrade

* YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_6nM50Ebtg7iaylWZVFoLw

Disclaimer:

The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at

https://vol.land

- providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.

Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.

Remember use promo code DARKMATTER10 to get 10% off your first month of Volland.

1. What is my trading style? Finding key levels - such as dealer hedging levels - and waiting for breakouts or breakdowns of these levels. We can't predict, but we wait #paytiently and will be paid handsomely then!

2. I focus on a few key tickers... $ES, $SPX, $SPY, $QQQ, $AAPL, $TSLA, $NVDA, $ADBE, $NFLX, $MFST - basically tickers with larger options volume

   1. I specifically trade ES options contracts - giving me flexibility to trade during ES hours

3. I try to avoid trading in the first 5-15 minutes of a session UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken

   1. I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out

   2. I then wait for key levels targeting one level to the next and taking profits at each one.

      1. If there are key levels that are 10pts apart that is when I have scalping mindset and anything above 10pts I want to give it the room to hit the price target with a 5 pt buffer to take profits once we reach within 5 pts of a target - I also tighten my stop loss once at 10-20% profit with the goal of never allowing trades to go red when I have a nice profit)

      2. My goal is not to be right, but to lock profits and reassess where I can enter into trades or roll up if we have continuation

         1. My bank growing is more important than my ego…

   3. Additionally I use these criteria’s as well to determine if I take the trade prior to this half hour mark

      1. Do we have any new catalysts coming up at 10am est?

      2. Did we have all of our news catalysts in the pre-market?

      3. Are we breaching or has one of our trade ideas broke out?

      4. What is my risk tolerance if I do take the trade before the half hour?

4. Options Trading Details

   1. SPX OR ES

      1. I mainly trade SPX or ES options - certain occasions will I trade SPY (big vol days and want to reduce risk, etc)

         1. ES options are my go to providing me around the clock futures times to trade

      2. If I am playing for a weekly plan I will buy at least that weekly if not the next weekly expiry

      3. If I am trading intraday I will buy at least 1DTE unless I see some news catalyst or continued trend that will push us in a certain direction with certainty

   2. Individual tickers

      1. Always the weekly if NOT the next monthly or quarterly OPEX strike

5. I supply options greeks with Volume Profile - See link below for how to setup and read the Volume Profile

   Dark Matter Trade

   Captain Wick's Chart Setup

   Hello Traders…

   Read more

   3 years ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Captain Wick

6. When I am scalping - ie targeting 10pt trade levels I will take profits and never go more than 10% red. Simple as that, know your trade plan strategy and the risk. When you are wrong you are wrong and reset

7. For 15-20pt trade level targets I will increase my stop losses to 15-20% and allow more of the trade to play in the event I entered too early

8. I try - key word try ha - avoid trading after London close and lunch hours defined as 11:30am to 2 pm est. Money for the most part unless you are scalping - is made in the first 2 hours of the trading day and the last 2 hours

9. For details on how to spot a breakdown or breakout check out my YouTube video

1. Using Volland For Tickers & Swings

I shared the below details in Volland’s Discord and sharing here for our readers.

1. ADBE's ticker is a prime example - it is always overshooting key vanna levels - only to retrace and find the next vanna level below. Over the past week - week and a half - the negative vanna on 540 had been accumulating and I now feel comfortable to trade this in the future is that anytime you visit large notional negative vanna level and it holds is when you can swing trade a week or two out. ADBE did have news release on a new PT that same week and that notional value kept increasing even as we passed it so while I trade intraday I now know that once that level broke again - meaning it went below 540 - fireworks can occur and a nice opportunity for a swing trade. If you look at ADBE's chart you can see it was the high, then gapped up on news and then sold off since then. It's almost similar to how the 510 level has been acting - it shifted multiple times from negative to positive vanna as it held and finally when it broke this week the total notional value increased and it flipped red once we broke it and held it.

2. I want to add that I am paying close attention to delta as well - individually puts and calls not aggregate of them. I keep notes on major changes to see where positioning is occurring and the larger the value the stronger those areas of interest are and where I think the swing trade ideas can be formed. I will also look at DAG for key levels where dealers may buy/sell and I start to monitor the weekly charm. I don't think charm is as strong on individual tickers as we know that as time passes closer to an expiry charms weight holds stronger. Even at a weekly charm view there isn't much there or at least yet that has guided my direction - instead I will rely on SPX and QQQ charm 0DTE to give me guidance on what the ticker may do.

3. Additionally, I am not looking to immediately jump into a trade when a key level is taken out unless it matches some of my criteria's such as:

   1. If my trade idea is to hold no more than a couple of days I am still trading at least one week out and if price breaks a key vanna levels - like 510 or 515 on adbe - then i am waiting for its retest to see what it does. Does 515 hold to short it or is it going to chop around between 510 and 515? On friday ADBE tried to overtake 515 couldn't and immediately fell to the next key vanna level of 510 and 505

   2. as of late I have been swinging trades and i hate to use the word "swing" here for no more than a day or two and that's cause a lot of tickers are decaying premium quite a bit unlike when we had our rally the past few months - if your timing is right even some of your swing trade ideas could hit in a given day/2 days/week and i will evaluate whether I close them and consider a new trade to roll up/down my option strike - for example if i bought on adobe 500p's 2-3 weeks out and see below on my profit targets I am going to take it and then wait for another entry to roll down 2-3 weeks out. this allows me to lock my profits in on shorter timeframes while still "riding" it to the boundary I mentioned

   3. i keep a strict stop loss or profit taking % - if it hits 20% up I start trimming to lock profits and let it ride to the price target. If i am down 20% I look at what my stop loss level was and make a quick decision plus time to expiry

   4. i am always trading at least one week if not 2 weeks out - i do not do weeklies - this market is just decaying premiums way too fast

   5. i use market seasonality for some of my bias - ie the month of August into september is one of the more weaker months for the market and so I will look into vanna to see what levels above spot even could fit my bias and where i can find some entry

   6. i have noticed that unlike SPX - some of these tickers such as the 505 level you want to start locking in or closing the trade around 508 or a few pts out in the case of ADBE. Some of these tickers can mean revert before the key vanna level so that is why with my PnL % target and this I don't always ride till the desired price target and why i compliment the Volland data with VP or OB's

   7. I only trade tickers with larger options volume - the data in Volland is amazing, but when options are not heavy in volume the picture is not as clear and you need to rely on other things like dark pools for key levels. Thus why I usually trade ADBE, ENPH, NFLX, MSFT as the data is clearer on some of these tickers than others

There are more we could discuss including volume profile, low volume nodes that I think are great strategies to compliment option greeks. Maybe in the future we can include more details.

Trading is not for the unprepared. It is critical you abide to a strategy and checklist and walk into every trade with a plan. Without a plan you are simply gambling and have a better chance at the slot machines. There are more nuances to my weekly and daily checklists, but I think this provides a good read for now and we will/can continue adding to it.

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

Hello fellow traders as we have been communicating for the past month we have made our official transition to our new Discord and will be moving away from Substack.

If you are a paid subscriber and have yet to make the transition to Discord please contact me by email at darkmattertrade@gmail.com with subject line “Access to Discord” so I can help you with your transition.

For our free and trial subscribers we wish to still see you in our Discord. To sign up follow the below link.

Subscribe to Dark Matter Discord

Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

Read more

3 years ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

Hello fellow traders as we have been communicating for the past month we have made our official transition to our new Discord and will be moving away from Substack.

If you are a paid subscriber and have yet to make the transition to Discord please contact me by email at darkmattertrade@gmail.com with subject line “Access to Discord” so I can help you with your transition.

For our free and trial subscribers we wish to still see you in our Discord. To sign up follow the below link.

Subscribe to Dark Matter Discord

Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

Read more

3 years ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

Hello fellow traders as we have been communicating for the past month we have made our official transition to our new Discord and will be moving away from Substack.

If you are a paid subscriber and have yet to make the transition to Discord please contact me by email at darkmattertrade@gmail.com with subject line “Access to Discord” so I can help you with your transition.

For our free and trial subscribers we wish to still see you in our Discord. To sign up follow the below link.

Subscribe to Dark Matter Discord

Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

Read more

3 years ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

Hello fellow traders and welcome to another week of our trading plan. Before we get into this week’s overview of the market let’s do an overview of our trading week.

• Monday - $418 - back and forth day was down and then scalped my way back into a green PnL day

• Tuesday - $640 - went long calls went from avg 17 to 18.60

• Wednesday - $2,700 - went long on the heels of FOMC

• Thursday - $-706 - went long but no dice stop loss triggered

• Friday - $995 - went short and nailed our downside target

Alright so what is in store for this week? From a news standpoint there is quite a bit of data coming out this week and we also have 4 trading days this week as the market is closed on Friday for Easter weekend observation.

On the news front let’s keep an eye out Tuesday for Consumer Confidence, Wednesday we have FED Member Waller speaking and we wrap up the week Thursday with GDP, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. You could say that Thursday might be volatile!

Let’s look at some data and what’s happening with the market from a macro standpoint…

A big start to the year typically leads to more gains… When the SPX is 10% YTD in March that means for the rest of the year we rally another 6.5% with Q2 and Q4 are highest quarters of return the rest of the year…

Let’s also dissect the latest study by Wayne Whaley - you should use last week’s trade plan provided on Sunday/Monday as reference - where he dissects what this week could do. Basically, the 10 days between March 14-24 predicts what this week will do. IF those 10 days are up above 1.2% then this week has been negative 7 times out of 8. This is the far right table…

This aligns with March’s seasonality view…

Last, but not least I leave you with this goodie…

Spec short volume rises to ~60% at market bottoms and falls to ~20% at market tops. Spec short ETF volume is falling but were not at extreme levels yet, stocks can definitely go higher

As I have been saying since our failed short trade back in January this is a buy the dip and scalp any shorts kind of market. So just because we have some data suggesting a red week I wouldn’t get to comfy staying in puts especially if we trigger a key level so maintain our rules - 10-15 pts take profits, reassess and attack again.

What are some of those critical buy the dip levels on higher timeframes IF we get to them?

Note: If you are looking for a swing trade idea - if we get a failed breakdown scenario with any of these levels I would consider a long position into a end of Q2 expiry or EOY expiry such as January 2025. I would look for a failed breakdown scenario with a daily candle close and/or weekly candle close above these key levels.

• 5200-5175 - this is currently Q1’s VAH and near March’s VAH

  • Since both VAH’s are forming and how strong of a vanna level it is starting to form I would say they will get closer to 5200 than below 5175…

• 5120-5100 - there is a lot in this area such as

  • 5117 - 3/18 weekly POC

  • 5111 - February’s Monthly High

  • 5107 - March’s VAL

  • 5104 - 3/11 weekly VAL

  • 5100 - major large negative vanna

We close a weekly candle below 5100 and I think that means a bigger selloff towards 5000 and then 4950…

Let’s jump into Monday’s trade plan…

Just a reminder - Transition to Discord…

One more week - end of March - and we will be discontinuing our Substack in favor of our transition to Discord. Haven’t made the transition yet? Below are details…

All of these updates were provided in real time in our Discord server. If you are an existing subscriber and haven’t received an email on how to transition to Discord please email me at darkmattertrade@gmail.com. For the subject line please add “Access to Discord.”

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Gamma Levels - GEX

Here is an overview of the Gamma/GEX data we are seeing longer term…

• Customers are treating this market as positive gamma - buy the dips

• 5200, 5250, 5225 are your top net GEX levels

• 5250 and 5300 is showing a lot of interest from customers…

  • There will be a squeeze if we break and hold 5250…

• 5200 is positive gamma suggesting we will be supportive if price visits it

• 5155 is a key pivot - below will trigger a larger selloff and push us back into negative gamma

• 4800 is a key level of support

Here is what it looks like intraday or 0DTE…

• We are sitting in a really tough zone where bulls and bears are fighting on 0DTE

  • TLDR is 5250 the high but I don’t see us cracking 5240 where we have a lot of puts/negative gamma which if proven right pushes price towards 5195 below 5225

• 5200 is an area of support

• 5195 is where the market starts to get negative gamma - aka sell the rips

• 5250 is a key upside target and resistance

3/25 News Catalysts

New home sales will be a bump in data on the day…

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to the newsletter your access will end here for you. 

You can still join us for the rest of the plan where we discuss key levels and entries to take and targets. 

There is a 5 day free trial for access into our new Discord channel. 

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Today was a sloppy and choppy day after the massive run up we had in the prior trading session on the heels of Powell speaking and then overnight futures action.

While we saw a 20pt selloff from the highs of the day we closed above 5240 and more importantly ES continues to show support at 5300.

That’s what it ultimately comes down to is how these levels react when tested and whether we continue up more or come falling back down.

Let’s jump into the trade plan…

Just a reminder - Transition to Discord…

One more week - end of March - and we will be discontinuing our Substack in favor of our transition to Discord. Haven’t made the transition yet? Below are details…

All of these updates were provided in real time in our Discord server. If you are an existing subscriber and haven’t received an email on how to transition to Discord please email me at darkmattertrade@gmail.com. For the subject line please add “Access to Discord.”

📈 Don't miss out on key levels, expert trade ideas, daily plans, and intraday updates for only $29.99/month.

💰 Click subscribe now and supercharge your trading game! 🚀

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Gamma Levels - GEX

Here is an overview of the Gamma/GEX data we are seeing longer term…

• Customers are treating this market as positive gamma - buy the dips

• 5250, 5275, 5245 are your top net GEX levels

• 5250 is showing a lot of interest from customers…

  • There will be a squeeze if we break and hold 5250…

• 5130 is a key pivot - below will trigger a larger selloff and push us back into negative gamma

• 4800 is a key level of support

Here is what it looks like intraday or 0DTE…

• 5200 is an area of support

• Put support at 5140 - could be where the low of the day could get to

• 5145 is where the market starts to get negative gamma - aka sell the rips

• 5250 is a key upside target and resistance

3/22 News Catalysts

UK retail sales are overnight, CA retails sales premarket, and last but not least FED Chair Powell Speaks at 9am est premarket.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to the newsletter your access will end here for you. 

You can still join us for the rest of the plan where we discuss key levels and entries to take and targets. 

There is a 5 day free trial for access into our new Discord channel. 

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Read more

Great trade plans yield to great results. Many of you went away today up $1k or more in PnL and wow what an exciting day it was.

I am really happy to see many of you walking away with massive profits today and I ended the day as well nicely up…

So what did we say in the trade plan - which helps prepare us for the days action - and then we use 0DTE options flow to guide direction and strength of that trade plans moves. What trade ideas did we have yesterday?

1. Above 5175 target 5190-5195

2. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 5195 targets 5205 then 5215

Then to add on top of that we added the last target on the day with real time updates in our discord with this update…

Congrats to all of you. Now the challenge - do not give back your profits. Keep trading smartly and manage your risk…

Alright let’s jump into our trade plan…

Just a reminder - Transition to Discord…

One more week - end of March - and we will be discontinuing our Substack in favor of our transition to Discord. Haven’t made the transition yet? Below are details…

All of these updates were provided in real time in our Discord server. If you are an existing subscriber and haven’t received an email on how to transition to Discord please email me at darkmattertrade@gmail.com. For the subject line please add “Access to Discord.”

📈 Don't miss out on key levels, expert trade ideas, daily plans, and intraday updates for only $29.99/month.

💰 Click subscribe now and supercharge your trading game! 🚀

#TradeSmart #LimitedTimeOffer

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Gamma Levels - GEX

Here is an overview of the Gamma/GEX data we are seeing longer term…

• Customers are treating this market as positive gamma - buy the dips

• 5200, 5250, 5225 are your top net GEX levels

• 5200 is now supportive so keep an eye on how price reacts here if it is revisited

• 5250 is showing a lot of interest from customers…

  • There will be a squeeze if we break and hold 5250…

• 5130 is a key pivot - below will trigger a larger selloff and push us back into negative gamma

• 4800 is a key level of support

Here is what it looks like intraday or 0DTE…

• 5200 is the first area of support

• Put support at 5140 - could be where the low of the day could get to

• 5150 is where the market starts to get negative gamma - aka sell the rips

• 5250 is a key upside target and resistance

With that let’s jump into our trade plan….

3/21 News Catalysts

Overnight the EU reports on PMI, the UK has their monetary policy summary, and then pre-market the we start with unemployment claims, philly fed index, and then after the open PMI…

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to the newsletter your access will end here for you. 

You can still join us for the rest of the plan where we discuss key levels and entries to take and targets. 

There is a 5 day free trial for access into our new Discord channel. 

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Read more

Major major news catalyst coming in Wednesday’s trade session and that is FOMC…

Before we get into Wednesday’s trade plan let’s review today’s trading session.

The market opened at 5139 zipping quickly to make a low at 5131 where it consolidated and reversed going as high as 5180. How did we fare?

Reviewing the trade plan we had the following trade ideas…

1. If there is a failed breakdown of 5135 target 5150

2. Above 5150 target 5165

3. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 5165 targets 5175

Additionally, we provided real time guidance in our Discord as 0DTE options flow came in suggesting we take a failed breakdown of 5140 or to be safer wait for 5145 to breakout with 5155 and then 5170 as targets…

Alright let’s jump into Wednesday’s trade plan…

Just a reminder - Transition to Discord…

One more week - end of March - and we will be discontinuing our Substack in favor of our transition to Discord. Haven’t made the transition yet? Below are details…

All of these updates were provided in real time in our Discord server. If you are an existing subscriber and haven’t received an email on how to transition to Discord please email me at darkmattertrade@gmail.com. For the subject line please add “Access to Discord.”

📈 Don't miss out on key levels, expert trade ideas, daily plans, and intraday updates for only $29.99/month.

💰 Click subscribe now and supercharge your trading game! 🚀

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Gamma Levels - GEX

Here is an overview of the Gamma/GEX data we are seeing longer term…

• Customers are treating this market as positive gamma - buy the dips

• 5200 is your top net GEX levels

• 5200 still has interest on it if revisited, but will be major resistance

  • There will be a squeeze if we break and hold this level…

  • It also could play as an interim top/resistance level until opex

• 5130 is a key pivot - below will trigger a larger selloff and push us back into negative gamma

• 4800 is a key level of support

Here is what it looks like intraday or 0DTE…

• Put support at 5120 - could be where the low of the day gets to

• 5145 is our intraday pivot level

• 5195-5200 is a key upside target and resistance

• 5225 is our upside max target if we were to get there as long as we are above 5200

With that let’s jump into our trade plan….

3/20 News Catalysts

Before we get to FOMC at 2pm est the UK reports on CPI overnight

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to the newsletter your access will end here for you. 

You can still join us for the rest of the plan where we discuss key levels and entries to take and targets. 

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Hello team going to jump right into the trade plan.

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Here is an overview of the Gamma/GEX data we are seeing longer term…

• Customers are treating this market as positive gamma - buy the dips

• 5175 is your top net GEX levels

• 5200 still has interest on it if revisited but will be major resistance

  • There will be a squeeze if we break and hold this level…

  • It also could play as an interim top/resistance level until opex

• 5110 is a key pivot - below will trigger a larger selloff and push us back into negative gamma

• 4800 is a key level of support

Here is what it looks like intraday or 0DTE…

• Put support at 5100 - could be where the low of the day gets to

• 5150 is a upside LIS level intraday

• 5175 is our upside max target if we were to get there

With that let’s jump into our trade plan….

3/19 News Catalysts

Building permits and Canada CPI highlight today’s news catalysts.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to the newsletter your access will end here for you. 

You can still join us for the rest of the plan where we discuss key levels and entries to take and targets. 

There is a 5 day free trial for access into our new Discord channel. 

SUBSCRIBE

Read more