December 14, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
December 14, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Market Recap
As much as the “noise” was made that today was a tough one to trade - if you stuck to the trade plan, the key pivot and LIS on the day - and had a plan on how you were going to manage your risk if the trade went the other way - you were an instant winner. Basically twice today. We guided our trading community live in our chat room and continued to mention the LIS of 4640-4645 all day long.
From our trade plan yesterday…
Between 4640-4665 I consider this zone chop - only will play failed breakdowns or breakouts in this zone. Otherwise it is pure random.
Thus, if I am a bull I want price above 4672 to target 4685. If we get continuation target 4695. Should we continue - this one will really need a catalyst - target 4715 above 4695.
Low and behold all targets have hit - with the last one occurring in futures currently.
That’s all there was to it after 2 PM and the FOMC announcement.
With that let’s get to the trade plan.
For those who haven’t subscribed this is a great opportunity to subscribe.
For as little as $15/month we provide daily trade plans for intraday traders and also provide great educational content.
News Catalysts
7am est - Monetary Policy from UK
8:15am est - Monetary Policy from EU
8:30am est - Retail Sales
8:30am est - Unemployment Claims
8:45am est - ECB Press Conference
For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar
12/14 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)
If the overnight futures high holds that means we have then reached one of our first targets to the upside at 4730.
Thus I want to see if price retraces to 4715 and fails to breakdown that becomes my pivot to go long targeting 4730.
The zone between 4730-4740 will be choppy so lock profits in and leave runners in the event we breakout of 4740 to target 4750. Above 4750 we target 4760. Again 10 pt zones lock profits and leave runners or wait to take each 10pt move with new trades.
The bigger move occurs if we breakout of 4760 it targets 4780. Risky trade and will need volume - definitely not 0DTE.
For the bears if they can defend 4730 it will push price back towards 4715. Should the VIX continue then I want to target 4705. Shorts are extremely risky below this level or any short trade for that matter - I can’t stress this enough. So manage your risk and keep stop losses tight in the event the market continues to churn up.
12/14 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan
Bullish bias:
If there is a failed break down of 4705 target 4730
Above 4740 target 4750
If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4750 targets 4760
A breakout of 4760 targets 4780
Bearish bias:
If there is a failed breakout of 4730-4740 target 4715
Shorts are extremely risky - scalp and lock profits and manage risk
If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4715 targets 4705
Shorts are extremely risky - scalp and lock profits and manage risk
As always keep an eye on Volland30 and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.
Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 53pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.
SPX - The Why Behind the Plan
Volume Profile & Trends
Will the ride up continue or will we tumble? Mark this steep trend line and let’s find out. Remember I just use this as another piece of data and couple it with the volume profile and Volland data.
Let’s review our volume profiles…
From a quarterly volume profile on the weekly chart some key levels are seen.
4715 - Q4 2021 VAH
4684 - Q4 2021 POC
4655 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4555 - Q4 POC - still forming
4545 - Q3 VAH
4450 - Q3 POC
If we take a look at the daily chart and review the monthly volume profile we find the following levels…
4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
4714 - November '21 VAH
4599 - December's VAH - still forming
4564 - December's POC - still forming
4551 - December’s VAL - still forming
4452 - September’s POC - hasn’t been breached
Let’s now look at the 4hr chart and review what the weekly volume profile levels show.
4709 - Weekly High
4647 - 12/11 Weekly VAH
4622 - 12/11 Weekly POC
4606 - 12/11 Weekly VAL - still forming
4593 - Weekly Low
On the smaller timeframe and intraday let’s go to our 30min chart where we will put our session volume profile on. Our levels of importance are…
4709 - 12/13 VAH
4651 - 12/13 VAL
4628 - 12/12 VAL
4607 - 12/11 VAL
4592 - 12/8 VAL
4549 - 12/6 POC - hasn’t been breached
4546 - 12/6 Daily VAL
Volland Data
For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.
Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet
Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.
Above Spot:
4730-4740 - negative vanna
4750 - negative vanna
4760 - negative vanna
4780 - negative vanna
4800 - negative vanna
4875 - negative vanna
Below Spot:
4705-4675 - negative vanna
4660-4640 - negative vanna
4630 - negative vanna
4620-4595 - negative vanna
Orderblocks (OB)
Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4715-4732 - OB (4hr chart)
4723 midline
4778-4797 - OB (2hr chart)
4788 midline
Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4652-4643 - OB (2hr chart)
4648 midline
4591-4580 - OB (30min chart)
4586 midline
4571-4565 - OB (15min chart)
4568 midline
4568-4546 - OB (1D chart)
4557 midline
4554-4525 - OB (4hr chart)
4536 midline
4554-4541 - OB (30m chart)
4548 midline
Key Levels
Above Spot:
4709 - Weekly High
4709 - 12/13 VAH
4714 - November '21 VAH
4715-4732 - OB (4hr chart)
4723 midline
4715 - Q4 2021 VAH
4730-4740 - negative vanna
4750 - negative vanna
4760 - negative vanna
4780 - negative vanna
4778-4797 - OB (2hr chart)
4788 midline
4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
4800 - negative vanna
4818 - January ‘22 VAH
Below Spot:
4705-4675 - negative vanna
4684 - Q4 2021 POC
4660-4640 - negative vanna
4652-4643 - OB (2hr chart)
4648 midline
4655 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4651 - 12/13 VAL
4647 - 12/11 Weekly VAH
4630 - negative vanna
4628 - 12/12 VAL
4620-4595 - negative vanna
4622 - 12/11 Weekly POC
4607 - 12/11 VAL
4591-4580 - OB (30min chart)
4586 midline
Weekly Option Expected Move
SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~64.33 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.99. That puts us at 4668.69 to the upside and 4540.03 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 467.19 and 453.21.
Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.
TradingView Chart Access
For access to my chart laying out all of the above key levels please visit here.
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.