December 27, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Dec 27, 2023

Market Recap

Won’t spend too much time on the recap as today was just a grind from level to level. We held the overnight key low of 4745 and opened at 4759 barely retracing down and then a slow grind to target 4775 and then 4780. It was in our chat that we then gave 4780 as the target on the day - SPX ended its high of day at 4784.

While a slow grind up we kept saying stay paytient and the levels will trade. When we have low volume days like this this is expected. On a typical day the SPX trades over 2million lots, today it only mustered about 1.4million lots. Apologizes I couldn’t keep trading with you all today as I had prior commitments.

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Dark Matter

April 11, 2023

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12/27 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

If there is a failed breakdown of 4765 target 4775-4780
Above 4786 target 4805
1. You could front this trade if price gets and holds above 4780, but be careful of reversals if it doesn’t hold
If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4805 targets 4820
If there is a failed breakdown of 4750 target 4820
1. Select the 478 or 480 call with at least 1-2 weeks expiry if not 1/19 OPEX calls

Bearish bias:

If there is a failed breakout of 4775-4780 target 4765
Below 4765 target 4750
If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4750 targets 4725
1. Be careful here. If this trades below 4725 and you short it and it starts to come back above 4730 should be your max stop loss

As always keep an eye on Volland30 and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 51pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

SPX/ES/SPY Swing Trade Idea:

If there is a failed breakdown of 4750 target 4820
1. Select the 478 or 480 call with at least 1-2 weeks expiry if not 1/19 OPEX calls
If 4745-4720 trades go long with expiration 2/16 or 3/15 475, 480, or 485 calls
1. I think if 4745-4735 trades this is the ideal zone to start accumulating calls
2. Should we trade near that 4720 level and it holds we can scale into more contracts at that point
3. Below 4715-4710 is where we would want to cut this trade and reassess

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12/27 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

4775-4786 - This is a tough zone - as you can see when price came back into it today we immediately sold off. What took us almost an hour to rally into took less than a half hour to sell from.

So first and foremost I want to see how price reacts at 4765. Should we gap down and hold this level we go long targeting the previous days highs.

If we do sell below 4765 that will target 4750. A nice area to flip from short and go long and even swing it 1-2 weeks out.

On the bullish side we need to get past 4786. This will take us into 4805 and then we will see all time highs after that at 4820. I think all time highs might be premature for tomorrow, but never say never.

SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels Overview

4775-4786 - This is a tough zone - as you can see when price came back into it today we immediately sold off. What took us almost an hour to rally into took less than a half hour to sell from.

4805 - You get above 4786 and this level comes, but the eye on the price continues above this level to target all time highs…

4820 - this is what the bulls are after - they would want more but this is the goal…reach all time highs just like NQ/QQQ have. Exact all time highs are 4818.

4765 - this is the first line of defense for the bulls intraday. Hold here and we trek back towards yesterday’s high of day.

4750 - this is where I would add calls to long into January. Minimum 1-2 weeks out and rally out of this zone between 4750-4786.

Volume Profile & Trends

The parallel channel we discussed in yesterday’s trade plan was breached, but we closed back within it.

We breached the top of our channel, but price closed back within it

From a quarterly volume profile on the weekly chart some key levels are seen.

4687 - 2021 POC
4684 - Q4 2021 POC
4655 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4556 - Q4 POC - still forming
4537 - 2023 VAH

SPX Weekly Chart with Quarterly Volume Profile Levels

If we take a look at the daily chart and review the monthly volume profile we find the following levels…

4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
4784 - December's VAH - still forming
4719 - December's POC - still forming
4603 - December’s VAL - still forming

SPX Daily Chart with Monthly Volume Profile Levels

Let’s now look at the 4hr chart and review what the weekly volume profile levels show.

4818 - All Time Highs
4777 - 12/26 Weekly VAH
4767 - 12/26 Weekly VAL
4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC
4722 - 12/18 Weekly VAL
4697 - Previous Week Low
4647 - 12/11 Weekly VAL

SPX 4hr Chart with Weekly Volume Profile Levels

On the smaller timeframe and intraday let’s go to our 30min chart where we will put our session volume profile on. Our levels of importance are…

4784 - Previous Session High of Day
4775 - 12/26 VAH
4767 - 12/26 VAL
4758 - Previous Session Low of Day
4752 - 12/22 VAL
4728 - 12/21 VAL

SPX 30min Chart with Session Volume Profile Levels

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

4775-4780 - negative vanna
4805 - negative vanna
4820 - negative vanna
4870 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

4765 - negative vanna
4750 - negative vanna
4725 - negative vanna
4715 - negative vanna
4705-4700 - negative vanna

Orderblocks (OB)

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4774-4808 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
1. 4791 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4758-4749 - OB (2hr chart)
1. 4754 midline
4735-4708 - OB (2hr chart)
1. 4722 midline
4718-4712 - OB (15min chart)
1. 4715 midline
4652-4643 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
1. 4648 midline

Orderblocks via Smart Money Concepts - blue are bearish supply blocks where as green are bullish demand blocks

Overlay of Key Levels

Above Spot:

4775-4780 - negative vanna
1. 4775 - 12/26 VAH
2. 4777 - 12/26 Weekly VAH
3. 4784 - Previous Session High of Day
4. 4784 - December's VAH - still forming
5. 4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
4805 - negative vanna
1. 4774-4808 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
  1. 4791 midline
4820 - negative vanna
1. 4818 - All Time Highs
2. 4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4870 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

4765 - negative vanna
1. 4767 - 12/26 VAL
2. 4767 - 12/26 Weekly VAL
3. 4758 - Previous Session Low of Day
4750 - negative vanna
1. 4752 - 12/22 VAL
2. 4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC
3. 4758-4749 - OB (2hr chart)
  1. 4754 midline
4725 - negative vanna
1. 4728 - 12/21 VAL
2. 4722 - 12/18 Weekly VAL
3. 4719 - December's POC - still forming
4. 4735-4708 - OB (2hr chart)
  1. 4722 midline
4715 - negative vanna

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~57.62 points. SPY’s expected move is ~5.92. That puts us at 4812.26 to the upside and 4697.02 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 479.54 and 467.70.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

a year ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.