June 2, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Good evening/day/morning traders. Today was an interesting day. While we had a trend day - the move was slow, but steady. The opening gave us a fake breakdown of that key bullish pivot level of 4185 we Tweeted about.

When we got near our target of 4200, I sent another Tweet stating I was going to keep runners as I saw new data on Volland using its volland30 product to show new dealer hedging positions. I rode this to that target price, cut my trade, and ended my trading day before noon.

I could have kept runners, but my time is worth more and I hit my profit target on the day. Remember, compound compound compound. Pay yourself on a weekl/bi-weekly/monthly basis. If you are not doing this then you will keep risking your profits and continue to have a roller coaster like motion.

On a separate note, I am starting to test Volland on other tickers. I started a position in ENPH 0.00%↑ yesterday and saw some good data within Volland using Vanna and Charm and more importantly charting it on the daily where we have this major gap to the upside open. I think there is still more left in this stock especially a pre-run on its ER next month. Will continue to monitor this ticker and a few others using Volland data. Here was my result today selling those calls…

Over $2000 profit on call options on $ENPH

Let’s jump into the trade plan.

I enjoy interacting and learning from other traders so continue to share your trades, ideas, and how you use this trade plan by messaging me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

With the debt ceiling news now behind us and an agreement that will go to President Biden to sign we now turn our attention back to key data prior to the market open…

1. 8:30am est - Non-Farm Employment Change

2. 8:30am est - Average Hourly Earnings

3. 8:30am est - Unemployment Rate

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 7pts more than the SPX levels shared below. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels below and divide by 10.01.

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4225 target 4240

2. If there is a breakout of 4240-45 target 4260

   1. Use VOLD indicator for trend continuation

   2. VIX should be decreasing

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4195, 4200 or 4205 target 4225

   1. Use VOLD indicator for trend reversal

   2. VIX should be decreasing

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4190 target 4150

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4225 target 4205

   1. Use VOLD indicator for trend reversal

   2. VIX should be increasing

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4225 - negative vanna

2. 4231-4243 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4237 midline

3. 4260 - negative vanna

   1. 4243-4279 - FVG (2hr chart)

      1. 4261 midline

4. 4280 - negative vanna

   1. 4275-4291 - OB (2hr chart)

      1. 4283 midline

5. 4305 - negative vanna

6. 4320 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4205 - negative vanna

   1. 4205 - 420.16-420.03 - $8.07B

2. 4200 - negative vanna

3. 4195 - negative vanna

   1. 4194-4179 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4187 midline

   2. 4196-80 - 419.20-417.60 - $16.03B

4. 4161-4151 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4155 midline

   2. 4160-56 - 415.66-415.28 - $9.84B

5. 4145 - negative vanna

   1. 4150-25 - 414.64-412.18 - $23.31B

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Dark Pool Levels

We saw a major push in dark pool levels at the 4205 level on SPX. This will be a key level to watch for a potential hold/support to take us higher or push us back down.

1. 4205 - 420.16-420.03 - $8.07B

2. 4196-80 - 419.20-417.60 - $16.03B

3. 4160-56 - 415.66-415.28 - $9.84B

4. 4150-25 - 414.64-412.18 - $23.31B

5. 4120-07 - 411.59-410.34 - $17.13B

6. 4100-4096 - 409.62-409.22 - $8.56B

Dark Pool Levels via Quant Data for 6/1

We need to pay attention to these dark pool levels. Mark them on your chart as key levels that we should pay attention to. Remember the levels where we see dark pool prints greater than $2-4B should peak our interest. I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4231-4243 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4237 midline

2. 4243-4279 - FVG (2hr chart)

   1. 4261 midline

3. 4275-4291 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4283 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4194-4179 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4187 midline

2. 4161-4151 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4155 midline

3. 4098-4072 - FVG (2hr chart)

4. 4049-4035 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4042 midline

Green Fill: Bullish FVG’ or Demand - Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Fill: Bearish FVG or Supply - Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~78.86 points. SPY’s expected move is ~8.08. Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

SPX Weekly Expected Move for Week of 5/29

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Volland Data

The Volland team now provides new product tiers providing you with more intraday updates. This is an amazing asset to have intraday to see how dealers are positioning themselves adding more conviction to our levels and changes to the key levels for the 2nd half of the trading session. Take a look by visiting the Volland site for their various options - including Volland 30 - the package I have subscribed giving me updates every 30 mins.

Volland's new subscription packages

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4225 - negative vanna

2. 4260 - negative vanna

3. 4280 - negative vanna

4. 4305 - negative vanna

5. 4320 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4205 - negative vanna

2. 4200 - negative vanna

3. 4195 - negative vanna

4. 4145 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

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Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4230-55 - positive gamma

2. 4265-75 - positive gamma

3. 4285-4300 - positive gamma

4. Dealers must buy between 4180 to 4240 and sell above 4250

Below Spot:

1. 4220 - positive gamma

2. 4205 - positive gamma

3. 4200 - positive gamma

4. 4145 - positive gamma

5. Dealers must sell below 4175

Aggregate view of Gamma levels

Dealer buying vs selling pressure - positive notional value = buying - negative notional value = selling

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Charm

Charm total notional value is bullish - negative is bullish and positive bearish - take the total of the far left and far right values.

Negative total notional value shows bullish charm

When reviewing Charm we also need to account for SPY’s charm. It is leaning bearish at an aggregate view.

SPY Charm - Aggregate View

If we look at SPY for 0DTE we are seeing a bullish charm view.

SPY Charm - 0DTE View

Note that the total notional value of SPX is 10x. Thus it’s charm will outweigh that of SPY’s. For the full charm effect to play out ideally we want to see SPX and SPY in sync.

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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