November 20, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Weekly Market Overview

Besides Tuesday’s monstrous rally after CPI the market traded in a very tight range - on avg 20-30pts - not giving us much trend or continuation and instead relying on key levels to trade failed breakdowns or breakouts. With a shorter trading week due to the Thanksgiving Holidays I wouldn’t expect a different story this week as well…

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First, the market makers expected move in the options market is approx. 48.89 pts in the SPX this week. We have gone two weeks now past their expected move so sooner than later they will right their expectations. For the exact levels see near the bottom for the details.

Alright onto some key levels…

4521-4485 - This zone is going to lead to more chop like we experienced last week. Outside of the CPI rally we had last week the rest of the week traded in between these levels.

4521 - this is the critical level to break for the bulls for continued trend to the upside targeting 4550 zone.

4545-4560 - this zone is probably an area we should be focused on if we get there. Lots of magnets to this area as you will see in the trade plan below reviewing the key levels. What happens there will be critical and where the market will trend next.

4485 - I can’t turn bearish on the weekly unless this level is broken and it holds targeting 4470 then 4455-4450.

4460-4450 - This zone could provide support if we are to selloff and I will be watching how we react here. If we hold this will be the zone to accumulate swings - end of year/January expiry - to go long on the SPX/SPY. If we break below and close below it on the weekly there will be more selloff coming targeting 4420-4400. Below this zone lies a major gap in both volume and price. I wouldn’t just long here unless we get confirmation on higher timeframes to swing.

4420-4400 - This zone is singlehandedly the most important level if you are a bull and want more continuation in the market for the remainder of the year. A break below this level short or mid term will spell disastrous for the bulls and start a sharper selloff.

So in summary on the weekly 4521 gets me giddy to go long and below 4485 gets me excited to go bearish on intraday timeframes. Shorts outside of this to me are scalps and quick 5-10pt hits you should be seeking.

Now let’s jump into the daily trade plan…

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11/20 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

There isn’t much news catalysts today besides some overnight interest rate numbers coming out of China. We do have the BOE Gov speaking at 1:45pm est.

The zone between 4521-4485 is pure chop even from a weekly view. So keep this in mind as we can have reversals come out of no where. Tread lightly in this zone when/if trading it.

Thus, for continuation if you are a bull you want price above 4521 to target