November 27, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Weekly Market Overview

Friday was just a brutal day - stayed within a tight 10pt range or smaller and that was all we had. We kept a key level to the downside, maintained an up trend line started from 11/16. With the low volume Thanksgiving holiday week behind us what can we expect this week?

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The market makers expected move in the options market for this week is 39.15, which means it is going to be a choppy week…So take profits, don’t overextend your welcome, and tighten those stop losses and manage your risk.

4560-4552 - this zone for intraday traders should be avoided. It is the zone we traded within Friday’s session. Complete noise within this zone…

4568 - Last week’s high and where we faced resistance pushing price back down all the way to 4545.

4577 - A weekly POC which has not been breached sits here and could be where the bears start to come out. Should we break this though….

So let’s summarizes that - between 4560-4577 be prepared for reversals so our favorite style of trading comes into play with a failed breakout or a successful breakout. The ideal trade is a breakout and hold of 4577 to target 4595. While risky we could also play the failed breakdown of 4540 where it breaks down to then be overtaken and we go long at 4550 to target 4575.

4596 - We stay above 4577 we will be on our way to here and potentially all time highs. This is the trade you want to target and break above 4577.

Now let’s review some key levels to the downside…

4540-4535 - Losing this level for the bulls begins a drop that will target the 4510-4490 zone.

4511-4489 - This was the last major area of accumulation and a close below this zone will target 4450.

So let’s summarizes this - between 4550 and 4535 we have chop - wait for failed breakdowns or wait for a successful breakdown of 4535 to target towards 4511. Another way you could play this is a failed breakout of 4560 where you go short once we get below 4550 to target 4535. Ideally the best trade is waiting for a break down of 4535 to target 4511.

Additionally, I want to take a look at the VIX. If we take a look at the weekly chart and zoom out you can see we are at the lows in the VIX where we typically get more volatility. Doesn’t mean we can’t see a VIX between 9 and 11, but I think we are going to see some reversion in it. It could go sideways for a few days and then breakout.

Weekly chart of the VIX where we typically find support at 11

Let’s zoom in now and on the 2hr chart we see some areas of support where the VIX could bounce from. So keep an eye on this zone in the VIX and let it guide you, your bias, and trades over the next few weeks.

2hr chart on the VIX shows that we are finding an area of support on the VIX

Now let’s jump into the daily trade plan…

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11/27 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

As we discussed above and below in the trade plan this week is going to be choppy. Play key levels on break downs or breakouts or failed ones.

Thus 4550-4560 is complete noise and you can see in futures action so far we have just bounced in between these levels.

How I play tomorrow is I wait and see how we react at 4560 and if we break above it we can target towards 4575 - this is a choppy zone so manage risk tight. The better trade comes above 4577 to target 4595 though…

If we get stuck below 4560 then we…