November 6, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Weekly Market Overview

We mentioned in last week’s market weekly overview that we could be seeing a near term low in the SPX and we got exactly that - at least for now right? ha. What we didn’t predict and nor did anyone else is the massive short squeeze and bull rally where we put in monster green days each trading day last week. Look at lower timeframes such as the 4hr or 2hr chart and you will find almost all green candles on the week. Impressive short squeeze albeit on lower volume…

So where does that put us this week?

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On the news front it is a pretty light week in terms of pure numbers being reported on the economy. We have Unemployment Claims on Thursday premarket and then the UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Friday at 10am est.

Other than that the big market movers from a news standpoint are FOMC speakers and then on Wednesday and Thursday FED Chair Powell will be speaking at conferences.

So from a technical standpoint where are we and what does it look like?

First there is a lot of noise above spot and it will be choppy conditions between 4374 and 4400. So as we trade through these levels we just need to keep in mind of reversals and breakdowns/breakouts. Now once we clear this zone there is minimal noise up to 4450 which is what started the selloff back in September. It is then in this zone from 4453-4481 where we will get bumpy conditions again.

To the downside the key level is 4355, 4320, and 4299. A selloff back towards 4299 would actually be preferred for the bulls and allow for another area of consolidation. Should 4354 sell and we can’t recover then we close a gap and target 4320. Below this is where we have 4299. IF we lose - which I don’t think we will as an opinion - then we target 4194, which is last week’s POC and what I consider a LIS for flipping bearish for a more continued and sustained selloff medium term. The loss of this triggers us back towards 4132 and most likely breaks the lows set 2 weeks ago targeting 4067.

Based on what I am analyzing I think this week could be quite choppy and sideways as the market finds liquidity and an area for consolidation for the next move. So lock profits in or bring stop losses in to preserve profits. There will be moves especially intraday so keep an eye for 0DTE action as it could guide the market this week pretty heavily.

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11/6 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

As the trade plan lays out expect choppy conditions this week - some tight zones and days where we can range up and down.

The bulls will want to…