October 16, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Weekly Market Overview
The bears gave the bulls a nice beat down to end the week there where we closed Friday’s session with a massive bearish candle.
At this point based on our levels the bulls continue to hold the leverage over the bears and as you will see through this trade plan we will explain why and what it will take to get a sustained selloff.
No doubt at this point and time the weekly view is a bit bearish and with seasonality in view we will continue to see a bit more down trend before the end of the month where we typically shift bullish. Again this is just another historical data point - doesn’t mean it must or will happen - but it gives us a general lean using data over the past few decades.
This week’s news catalysts begins Monday with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, but the big headline for the week will be Tuesday’s Retail Sales number and the health of the consumer. Other than that we have a lot of FED speakers throughout the week. In international news UK and CA will print its latest CPI numbers and we get GDP numbers from China.
Besides the news we have more financial earnings, but the start of tech earnings begins on Wednesday when TSLA, NFLX, LRCX, and others report.
With those news catalysts it is interesting how much movement the market makers are expecting in this weeks options market. Is this due to geopolitics or something in the news/FED expected this week? Again no predictions, let’s react to key levels and go from there. The expected move total is provided below in the trade plan.
On to the trade plan…
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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)
Futures action shows us gapping up and testing our first target near 4340 SPX (4370 ES) where it has faced resistance. Thus it will be a critical level for further upside.
4325 SPX (4356 ES) is the low of the futures so far. Both low and high of session so far align with our trade plan and this zone could be labeled as choppy and where we only want to trade breakdowns or breakouts or failed ones out of this zone.
Thus if you are bullish, you want the bulls to defend 4325 - for continuation towards 4340. Above it we target…
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